KREF — KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, focuses primarily on originating and acquiring transitional senior loans secured by commercial real estate (CRE) assets in the United States. It engages in the origination and purchase of credit investments related to CRE, including leveraged and unleveraged commercial real estate loans. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$6.57
Market Cap$413M
Float47.2M
Shares Outstanding64.3M
P/E (Forward)11.67
Price/Sales (TTM)27.18
vs. Analyst Target-3.6% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)145.07%
Revenue (TTM)-$34.9M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-64.10%
Dividend Rate0.4%
Analyst Target Price$6.33 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $126M $54.4M $126M $77.1M
2021 $152M $137M $152M $154M
2022 $437M $38.1M $399M $274M
2023 $182M -$53.9M $170M -$52.1M
2024 $593M $35.6M $543M $448M
2025 $458M -$47.1M $404M $275M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $119M -$29.7M
Sep 2025 $114M $13.8M
Dec 2025 $108M -$26.2M
Mar 2026 $102M -$56.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.4%
Institutional Ownership80.8%
Short Float8.6%
% of All Funds Holding1.86%
Number of Funds Holding153

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$6.37Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$7.78Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$8.87Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$11.15Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$7.75Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$8.94Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$10.19Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$6.80 resistance 2.18x 1 months ago
$8.20 resistance 1.46x 2 months ago
$9.00 resistance 1.45x 6 months ago
$10.80 resistance 1.47x 12 months ago
$11.60 resistance 1.08x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (37 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.74% 0.15% 51.35% 3.68% -20.75%
1 Day -0.38% -0.47% 43.24% 14.57% -13.85%
1 Week -0.86% -1.20% 43.24% 14.17% -20.56%
2 Weeks -0.91% -0.52% 40.54% 14.99% -18.10%
1 Month -1.40% -0.32% 47.22% 19.92% -54.58%

Next earnings: July 11, 2026 (44 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.3%55.6%9
Feb-3.7%44.4%9
Mar-6.7%22.2%9
Apr-1.7%44.4%9
May1.8%75.0%8
Jun-1.5%44.4%9
Jul4.8%77.8%9
Aug1.9%77.8%9
Sep-3.8%33.3%9
Oct-2.0%44.4%9
Nov2.6%66.7%9
Dec-3.4%33.3%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 51.9% 426
Tuesday 0.03% 47.6% 468
Wednesday -0.08% 48.4% 465
Thursday -0.10% 49.9% 457
Friday 0.01% 50.9% 458

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 80.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value+$957,312.5
Net Shares Change-71,878
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
ROSENBERG RALPH F -$2.1M 1 2 sell
Salem Matthew A Chief Executive Officer +$613,435.2 2 2 buy
Mattson W Patrick President, COO and Secretary +$343,877.3 2 2 buy
AHERN TERRANCE R +$185,196.54 1 1 buy
Lee Christen E.J. +$77,978 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-10 – 2025-11-10 4 4 +$616,943.04 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-04-27 Salem Matthew A Chief Executive Officer +$362,472 Transaction at $6.04, now +8.8%
2026-04-27 Mattson W Patrick President, COO and Secretary +$241,072 Transaction at $6.03, now +9.0%
2025-12-03 ROSENBERG RALPH F -$2.1M Transaction at $8.25, now -20.4%
2025-11-10 Salem Matthew A Chief Executive Officer +$250,963.2 Transaction at $7.84, now -16.2%
2025-11-10 Mattson W Patrick President and COO +$102,805.3 Transaction at $7.91, now -16.9%
2025-11-10 AHERN TERRANCE R +$185,196.54 Transaction at $7.81, now -15.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for KREF on Trend Edge →