JMSB — John Marshall Bancorp Inc

✨ Hidden Gem Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About John Marshall Bancorp Inc

John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for John Marshall Bank that provides banking products and financial services in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Montgomery, District of Columbia. The company offers checking, NOW, money market accounts, and savings accounts; certificates of deposit; and time, reciprocal IntraFi Demand, IntraFi Money Market, and IntraFi CD deposits. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$21.24
Market Cap$298M
Float12.3M
Shares Outstanding14.1M
P/E (TTM)13.37
Price/Sales (TTM)4.71
Profit Margin35.59%
Operating Margin (TTM)46.79%
Revenue (TTM)$63.3M
Earnings Growth (YoY)27.60%
Dividend Rate0.5%

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $74.1M $18.5M $52.2M $25.7M
2021 $75.8M $25.5M $64.5M $34.5M
2022 $85.8M $31.8M $71.9M $42.0M
2023 $85.8M $5.2M $38.8M $9.7M
2024 $112M $17.1M $53.7M $23.6M
2025 $115M $21.2M $61.0M $28.9M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $28.4M $5.1M
Sep 2025 $29.6M $5.4M
Dec 2025 $29.6M $5.9M
Mar 2026 $29.1M $6.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership13.1%
Institutional Ownership49.8%
Short Float0.8%
% of All Funds Holding0.83%
Number of Funds Holding68

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$20.89Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$20.16Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$19.37Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$20.47Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$20.11Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$19.54Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$19.44Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$19.20 support 1.72x 1 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (38 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.25% 0.00% 42.11% 13.53% -4.60%
1 Day 0.02% 0.00% 39.47% 5.88% -4.41%
1 Week 0.26% 0.34% 55.26% 10.32% -10.53%
2 Weeks 0.87% 0.83% 63.16% 11.96% -20.13%
1 Month 3.72% 3.31% 59.46% 25.30% -11.12%

Next earnings: July 22, 2026 (55 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.7%66.7%9
Feb-2.1%44.4%9
Mar-5.5%44.4%9
Apr0.4%60.0%10
May3.4%77.8%9
Jun-2.4%33.3%9
Jul3.7%44.4%9
Aug0.6%55.6%9
Sep0.7%55.6%9
Oct4.7%55.6%9
Nov1.5%55.6%9
Dec0.5%44.4%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.08% 40.0% 435
Tuesday 0.00% 40.4% 478
Wednesday 0.10% 42.0% 474
Thursday 0.16% 43.1% 466
Friday -0.02% 40.0% 467

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 49.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 13.1%

Founder-led management: Christopher W. Bergstrom (President & Chief Executive Officer)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings14
Net Value+$92,156
Net Shares Change26,596
% of Float0.2%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
GARCIA MICHAEL A +$252,917.432 2 2 buy
Kinney Jonathan Craig +$92,906.029 6 6 buy
Carstater Kent CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER +$92,156 1 1 buy
Mahan Oscar Leland +$13,264.56 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-08-01 Carstater Kent CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER +$92,156 Transaction at $18.43, now +15.2%
2025-12-08 Kinney Jonathan Craig +$9,815 Transaction at $19.63, now +8.2%
2025-12-04 Kinney Jonathan Craig +$26,003.02 Transaction at $19.33, now +9.9%
2025-07-31 GARCIA MICHAEL A +$118,310.4 Transaction at $19.20, now +10.6%
2025-07-30 GARCIA MICHAEL A +$134,607.032 Transaction at $19.17, now +10.8%
2025-11-10 Kinney Jonathan Craig +$9,450 Transaction at $18.90, now +12.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for John Marshall Bancorp Inc (JMSB) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for JMSB on Trend Edge →