HFWA — Heritage Financial Corporation

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates HFWA Bullish with a Setup Score of 42, net conviction 32, actionability 55. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score42
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction32
Actionability55 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Heritage Financial Corporation

Heritage Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Heritage Bank that provides various financial services to small and medium sized businesses and its owners in the United States. It accepts various deposit products, such as noninterest demand deposits, interest bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, personal checking accounts, and certificates of deposit. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$28.66
Market Cap$1.18B
Float40.3M
Shares Outstanding40.9M
P/E (Forward)12.33
P/E (TTM)13.72
Price/Sales (TTM)4.01
vs. Analyst Target+15.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin26.40%
Operating Margin (TTM)28.93%
Revenue (TTM)$295M
Earnings Growth (YoY)17.00%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$33.00 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $252M $46.6M $202M $53.1M
2021 $247M $98.0M $270M $102M
2022 $257M $81.9M $250M $103M
2023 $303M $61.8M $240M $78.5M
2024 $317M $43.3M $211M $55.5M
2025 $336M $67.5M $243M $79.6M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $87.8M $19.2M
Dec 2025 $86.8M $22.2M
Mar 2026 $99.4M $18.9M
Jun 2026 $62.2M $17.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.4%
Institutional Ownership82.4%
Short Float6.7%
% of All Funds Holding2.15%
Number of Funds Holding189

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$29.61Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$27.07Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$25.27Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$23.01Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$26.86Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$25.36Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$22.53Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$27.40 support 1.39x 1 months ago
$25.70 support 1.13x 3 months ago
$23.80 support 1.30x 6 months ago
$18.00 support 1.05x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (112 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.07% 0.00% 48.21% 6.51% -3.84%
1 Day -0.13% -0.09% 40.18% 7.56% -7.30%
1 Week 0.05% 0.67% 58.04% 15.13% -17.41%
2 Weeks 0.32% 0.67% 56.25% 17.44% -21.35%
1 Month 0.92% 0.83% 54.95% 25.83% -21.10%

Next earnings: October 22, 2026 (55 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.3%42.9%28
Feb0.2%46.4%28
Mar-0.7%50.0%28
Apr-1.8%35.7%28
May-0.2%50.0%28
Jun1.4%58.6%29
Jul1.6%51.7%29
Aug-1.4%46.4%28
Sep0.7%53.6%28
Oct1.7%46.4%28
Nov3.2%64.3%28
Dec0.7%64.3%28

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 47.6% 1337
Tuesday 0.05% 47.3% 1461
Wednesday -0.01% 45.3% 1461
Thursday 0.05% 46.7% 1433
Friday 0.07% 47.6% 1425

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 82.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings10
Net Value-$332,122.699
Net Shares Change-19,248
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
McDonald Bryan President +$426,445.92 1 1 buy
LYON JEFFREY S -$300,000 1 1 sell
Chalfant Tony EVP Chief Credit Officer -$225,815.206 2 2 sell
Wilson Kelli Ann EVP Chief Banking Officer -$162,485.137 2 2 sell
Robison Sabrina C EVP Chief HR Officer -$150,126.552 1 2 sell
Ray Matthew T. EVP Chief Lending Officer -$111,129.2 1 1 sell
Hinson Donald EVPand Chief Financial Officer -$109,012.524 1 1 sell
Rivera Frederick B -$47,349.54 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-07-30 – 2026-08-13 4 4 -$620,057.695 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-13 Ray Matthew T. EVP Chief Lending Officer -$111,129.2 Transaction at $30.10, now -4.8%
2026-08-05 Chalfant Tony EVP Chief Credit Officer -$96,750.608 Transaction at $29.92, now -4.2%
2026-07-30 Wilson Kelli Ann EVP Chief Banking Officer -$112,177.887 Transaction at $29.69, now -3.5%
2026-08-05 LYON JEFFREY S -$300,000 Transaction at $30.00, now -4.5%
2026-06-10 Hinson Donald EVPand Chief Financial Officer -$109,012.524 Transaction at $28.37, now +1.0%
2026-05-04 Robison Sabrina C EVP Chief HR Officer -$150,126.552 Transaction at $27.56, now +4.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for HFWA on Trend Edge →