FXNC — First National Corp

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About First National Corp

First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Bank that provides various commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, individuals, estates, local governmental entities, and non-profit organizations in Virginia. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, money market, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and treasury management solutions. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$28.04
Market Cap$252M
Float6.9M
Shares Outstanding9.0M
P/E (Forward)8.09
P/E (TTM)11.80
Price/Sales (TTM)2.83
vs. Analyst Target+1.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin23.56%
Operating Margin (TTM)31.21%
Revenue (TTM)$89.1M
Earnings Growth (YoY)203.40%
Dividend Rate0.7%
Analyst Target Price$28.50 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $40.1M $8.9M $33.7M $12.4M
2021 $46.2M $10.4M $44.5M $14.3M
2022 $60.7M $16.8M $55.0M $22.3M
2023 $67.9M $9.6M $47.4M $13.4M
2024 $88.3M $7.0M $56.6M $10.4M
2025 $112M $17.7M $83.1M $21.9M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $28.5M $5.1M
Sep 2025 $29.6M $5.5M
Dec 2025 $30.0M $5.5M
Mar 2026 $28.2M $4.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership14.3%
Institutional Ownership42.5%
Short Float1.4%

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$27.76Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$25.53Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$23.82Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$19.96Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$25.29Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$23.75Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$20.47Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$17.80 support 2.55x 18 months ago
$15.00 support 1.09x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (91 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.18% 0.00% 27.47% 7.00% -10.14%
1 Day -0.12% 0.00% 29.67% 13.96% -10.77%
1 Week 1.86% 0.86% 61.54% 48.87% -8.91%
2 Weeks 1.51% 1.16% 61.54% 29.27% -16.00%
1 Month 1.47% 0.96% 60.00% 33.33% -20.83%

Next earnings: July 19, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.7%55.6%27
Feb-1.4%42.9%28
Mar2.5%64.3%28
Apr1.2%42.9%28
May-1.3%48.1%27
Jun0.4%48.1%27
Jul1.1%48.1%27
Aug0.2%25.9%27
Sep-0.6%44.4%27
Oct0.2%48.1%27
Nov3.0%66.7%27
Dec1.6%63.0%27

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 23.6% 1290
Tuesday 0.01% 25.3% 1413
Wednesday -0.01% 26.0% 1412
Thursday 0.03% 24.8% 1385
Friday 0.22% 28.0% 1381

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 42.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 14.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value+$87,780
Net Shares Change4,000
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Schwartz Brad E EVP - CFO +$87,780 4 4 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-04 Schwartz Brad E EVP - CFO +$26,910 Transaction at $26.91, now +4.2%
2025-08-07 Schwartz Brad E EVP - CFO +$21,020 Transaction at $21.02, now +33.4%
2025-06-06 Schwartz Brad E EVP - CFO +$19,650 Transaction at $19.65, now +42.7%
2025-06-02 Schwartz Brad E EVP - CFO +$20,200 Transaction at $20.20, now +38.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for First National Corp (FXNC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for FXNC on Trend Edge →