FSBW — FS Bancorp Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates FSBW Bullish with a Setup Score of 78, net conviction 52, actionability 117. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score78
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction52
Actionability117 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About FS Bancorp Inc

FS Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for 1st Security Bank of Washington that provides banking and financial services to local families, local and regional businesses, and industry niches in Washington. The company operates in two segments, Commercial and Consumer Banking; and Home Lending. It offers various deposit instruments, including checking accounts, money market deposit accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposi… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$42.73
Market Cap$317M
Float6.2M
Shares Outstanding7.4M
P/E (Forward)8.90
P/E (TTM)9.79
Price/Sales (TTM)2.18
vs. Analyst Target+5.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin23.02%
Operating Margin (TTM)32.41%
Revenue (TTM)$145M
Earnings Growth (YoY)5.10%
Dividend Rate1.2%
Analyst Target Price$45.00 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $142M $39.3M $114M $63.5M
2021 $131M $37.4M $121M $62.6M
2022 $134M $29.6M $113M $51.0M
2023 $185M $36.1M $137M $57.9M
2024 $204M $35.0M $136M $52.1M
2025 $218M $33.3M $145M $55.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $55.8M $9.2M
Dec 2025 $57.2M $8.4M
Mar 2026 $54.8M $7.8M
Jun 2026 $10.9M $7.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership8.7%
Institutional Ownership69.2%
Short Float3.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.24%
Number of Funds Holding109

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$43.26Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$41.49Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$40.46Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$37.26Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$41.26Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$40.39Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$38.07Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$41.00 support 1.56x 1 months ago
$38.40 support 1.12x 3 months ago
$36.30 support 1.72x 24 months ago
$33.20 support 1.24x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (56 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.48% 0.38% 66.07% 5.92% -3.97%
1 Day 0.97% 0.66% 62.50% 9.34% -5.25%
1 Week 2.31% 2.49% 60.71% 16.41% -11.17%
2 Weeks 2.13% 1.81% 62.50% 18.06% -12.58%
1 Month 3.18% 2.62% 67.27% 24.53% -20.61%

Next earnings: October 20, 2026 (54 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.0%42.9%14
Feb-0.7%35.7%14
Mar-2.3%35.7%14
Apr3.3%71.4%14
May0.9%71.4%14
Jun3.2%78.6%14
Jul1.6%42.9%14
Aug1.3%50.0%14
Sep0.3%64.3%14
Oct1.9%57.1%14
Nov6.7%92.9%14
Dec0.9%50.0%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 46.2% 667
Tuesday 0.02% 44.3% 729
Wednesday 0.09% 48.9% 728
Thursday 0.19% 51.1% 714
Friday 0.07% 46.5% 712

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 69.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 8.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$612,642.18
Net Shares Change-17,178
% of Float-0.3%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Adams Joseph C. Director/CEO -$612,642.18 1 1 sell
Cofer-Wildsmith Marina -$101,260.588 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-08-29 Adams Joseph C. Director/CEO -$612,642.18 Transaction at $41.83, now +2.2%
2026-01-15 Cofer-Wildsmith Marina -$101,260.588 Transaction at $40.00, now +6.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for FS Bancorp Inc (FSBW) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for FSBW on Trend Edge →