FRME — First Merchants Corporation

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About First Merchants Corporation

First Merchants Corporation operates as the financial holding company for First Merchants Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services. The company offers a range of financial services, including checking, savings, and deposit products; debit and credit cards; mortgages, refinance, construction or renovation of residential properties, agricultural lending, treasury management services and depository products. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$40.23
Market Cap$2.54B
Float61.8M
Shares Outstanding63.0M
P/E (Forward)11.07
P/E (TTM)11.87
Price/Sales (TTM)3.98
vs. Analyst Target+18.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin31.17%
Operating Margin (TTM)22.58%
Revenue (TTM)$638M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-52.10%
Dividend Rate1.5%
Analyst Target Price$47.60 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $558M $149M $433M $181M
2021 $556M $206M $520M $251M
2022 $713M $222M $611M $267M
2023 $999M $224M $648M $271M
2024 $1.05B $201M $591M $259M
2025 $1.05B $226M $640M $289M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $261M $56.8M
Sep 2025 $268M $56.8M
Dec 2025 $270M $57.1M
Mar 2026 $253M $28.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.1%
Institutional Ownership75.3%
Short Float1.7%
% of All Funds Holding3.39%
Number of Funds Holding279

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$39.94Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$38.74Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$39.26Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$36.87Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$38.73Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$39.32Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$36.18Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$43.00 resistance 1.31x 13 months ago
$33.20 support 1.16x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.29% 0.18% 51.64% 4.84% -6.78%
1 Day 0.32% 0.14% 51.64% 7.30% -7.22%
1 Week 0.64% 0.69% 59.02% 18.03% -15.27%
2 Weeks 0.57% 0.90% 55.74% 19.80% -33.93%
1 Month 1.06% 0.95% 57.85% 33.19% -46.13%

Next earnings: July 11, 2026 (44 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.7%56.8%37
Feb-0.2%51.4%37
Mar-0.4%45.9%37
Apr-0.0%40.5%37
May0.0%50.0%36
Jun0.2%58.3%36
Jul2.0%59.5%37
Aug0.1%54.1%37
Sep-0.7%37.8%37
Oct1.6%56.8%37
Nov3.9%62.2%37
Dec1.6%62.2%37

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.09% 45.8% 1752
Tuesday 0.10% 45.8% 1908
Wednesday 0.00% 43.1% 1906
Thursday 0.06% 44.2% 1871
Friday -0.02% 41.5% 1863

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 75.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings6
Net Value-$928,325.84
Net Shares Change-23,077
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings6
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Myers Larry W First Vice President -$415,016.5 3 3 sell
FLUHLER STEPHAN Chief Information Officer -$376,839.51 2 2 sell
Scurlock Eva D. Chief Risk Officer -$136,469.83 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-22 Myers Larry W First Vice President -$16.5 Transaction at $40.54, now -0.8%
2026-05-18 Myers Larry W First Vice President -$207,500 Transaction at $41.50, now -3.1%
2026-02-26 Myers Larry W First Vice President -$207,500 Transaction at $41.50, now -3.1%
2026-02-12 FLUHLER STEPHAN Chief Information Officer -$174,595.56 Transaction at $41.96, now -4.1%
2026-02-09 Scurlock Eva D. Chief Risk Officer -$136,469.83 Transaction at $42.29, now -4.9%
2025-11-04 FLUHLER STEPHAN Chief Information Officer -$202,243.95 Transaction at $35.55, now +13.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for First Merchants Corporation (FRME) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for FRME on Trend Edge →