FOSL — Fossil Group Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Fossil Group Inc

Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$4.06
Market Cap$241M
Float47.7M
Shares Outstanding59.1M
P/E (Forward)166.67
Price/Sales (TTM)0.24
vs. Analyst Target+72.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-6.18%
Operating Margin (TTM)6.27%
Revenue (TTM)$996M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-81.70%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$7.00

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.61B -$96.1M $770M -$97.0M
2021 $1.87B $25.4M $966M $108M
2022 $1.68B -$44.2M $831M $20.4M
2023 $1.41B -$157M $685M -$73.0M
2024 $1.14B -$103M $597M -$83.1M
2025 $1.00B -$78.3M $563M $36.1M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $220M -$2.3M
Sep 2025 $270M -$39.9M
Dec 2025 $281M -$18.6M
Mar 2026 $225M -$810,000

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership8.7%
Institutional Ownership61.0%
Short Float7.0%
% of All Funds Holding1.02%
Number of Funds Holding84

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$4.51Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$3.61Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$2.60Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$2.50Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$3.54Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$2.49Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$2.16Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$3.00 support 1.04x 4 months ago
$2.20 support 1.71x 5 months ago
$1.70 support 1.88x 8 months ago
$0.80 support 1.34x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (123 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.05% 0.00% 45.53% 78.43% -32.34%
1 Day 0.16% 0.41% 51.22% 87.72% -37.51%
1 Week 0.24% -0.28% 47.97% 56.68% -37.74%
2 Weeks 1.45% 0.11% 51.64% 66.85% -44.59%
1 Month 1.51% -1.03% 45.90% 74.29% -43.03%

Next earnings: August 1, 2026 (65 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.7%45.5%33
Feb5.6%57.6%33
Mar-2.1%36.4%33
Apr2.8%66.7%33
May2.4%51.5%33
Jun5.4%54.5%33
Jul0.6%48.5%33
Aug2.1%48.5%33
Sep-2.2%39.4%33
Oct0.7%48.5%33
Nov6.1%60.6%33
Dec-0.7%48.5%33

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.03% 45.4% 1567
Tuesday 0.23% 49.4% 1712
Wednesday 0.09% 47.7% 1710
Thursday 0.17% 48.7% 1677
Friday 0.04% 47.3% 1671

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 61.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 8.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value+$509,432.8
Net Shares Change435,912
% of Float0.9%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Fogliato Franco CEO +$359,500 1 1 buy
Schoppert Wendy Lee +$305,423.4 3 3 buy
Coulter Suzanne M +$101,975.4 1 1 buy
Martin Joe T Chief Commercial Officer +$100,000.4 1 1 buy
Tifford Gail B +$79,200 1 1 buy
Greben Randy J CFO +$49,932.4 1 1 buy
Edwards Pamela J +$23,700 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-19 – 2025-11-25 6 6 +$714,398.14 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-20 Schoppert Wendy Lee +$100,730.34 Transaction at $4.14, now -1.9%
2026-03-18 Schoppert Wendy Lee +$102,627.72 Transaction at $4.68, now -13.2%
2025-12-04 Coulter Suzanne M +$101,975.4 Transaction at $3.62, now +12.2%
2025-11-25 Greben Randy J CFO +$49,932.4 Transaction at $2.38, now +70.6%
2025-11-20 Martin Joe T Chief Commercial Officer +$100,000.4 Transaction at $1.78, now +128.1%
2025-11-19 Fogliato Franco CEO +$359,500 Transaction at $1.80, now +125.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Fossil Group Inc (FOSL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for FOSL on Trend Edge →