FCF — First Commonwealth Financial

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates FCF Bullish with a Setup Score of 48, net conviction 37, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score48
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction37
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About First Commonwealth Financial

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides various consumer and commercial banking products and services in the United States. The company's consumer services include internet, mobile, and telephone banking; an automated teller machine network; personal checking accounts, interest-earning checking accounts, savings and health savings accounts, insured money market accounts, debit cards, investment certificates… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$20.73
Market Cap$2.15B
Float98.3M
Shares Outstanding101.1M
P/E (Forward)12.03
P/E (TTM)12.80
Price/Sales (TTM)4.24
vs. Analyst Target+16.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin33.20%
Operating Margin (TTM)45.36%
Revenue (TTM)$507M
Earnings Growth (YoY)37.50%
Dividend Rate0.6%
Analyst Target Price$24.08 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $396M $73.4M $306M $102M
2021 $401M $138M $387M $184M
2022 $429M $128M $390M $171M
2023 $627M $157M $467M $202M
2024 $700M $143M $449M $184M
2025 $729M $152M $493M $205M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $188M $41.3M
Dec 2025 $189M $44.9M
Mar 2026 $179M $37.5M
Jun 2026 $67.0M $44.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.6%
Institutional Ownership80.4%
Short Float3.1%
% of All Funds Holding3.00%
Number of Funds Holding264

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$20.98Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$18.69Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$17.42Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$15.68Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$18.62Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$17.43Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$16.02Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$18.80 support 1.09x 1 months ago
$13.90 support 1.49x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.09% 0.00% 44.63% 5.18% -3.05%
1 Day 0.19% 0.26% 51.24% 8.06% -8.15%
1 Week 0.04% -0.26% 47.11% 17.27% -13.19%
2 Weeks -0.36% -0.57% 47.93% 22.31% -22.81%
1 Month 0.31% 0.19% 52.50% 27.25% -24.26%

Next earnings: October 16, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.3%52.9%34
Feb-1.3%41.2%34
Mar-0.0%55.9%34
Apr1.2%55.9%34
May-2.5%50.0%34
Jun1.2%52.9%34
Jul2.2%65.7%35
Aug-1.1%38.2%34
Sep0.4%55.9%34
Oct2.2%64.7%34
Nov2.4%70.6%34
Dec2.7%58.8%34

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.05% 46.9% 1621
Tuesday 0.08% 48.6% 1768
Wednesday -0.01% 45.4% 1766
Thursday 0.07% 47.0% 1733
Friday 0.11% 46.9% 1722

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 80.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings24
Net Value-$2.9M
Net Shares Change-164,987
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings20
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lyon Lee E II EVP / Chief Audit Executive -$1.2M 2 2 sell
Montgomery Norman J EVP/Business Integration -$696,764.681 1 1 sell
Grebenc Jane -$325,453.5 1 1 sell
McCuen Michael P EVP/Chief Banking Officer -$97,936.23 3 2 buy, 1 sell
BRICE TODD D +$52,078.6 3 3 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-03 – 2026-02-09 4 3 -$510,480.1 3 C-suite
2026-05-04 – 2026-05-18 4 4 -$1.4M 3 C-suite
2026-08-06 – 2026-08-10 3 3 -$907,304.214 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-10 Lyon Lee E II EVP / Chief Audit Executive -$536,580 Transaction at $21.46, now -3.4%
2026-06-04 McCuen Michael P EVP/Chief Banking Officer -$197,898.75 Transaction at $18.85, now +10.0%
2026-08-10 Grebenc Jane -$325,453.5 Transaction at $21.70, now -4.5%
2026-05-04 BRICE TODD D +$18,580 Transaction at $18.58, now +11.6%
2025-11-21 McCuen Michael P EVP/Chief Banking Officer +$50,027.1 Transaction at $16.19, now +28.0%
2025-09-04 McCuen Michael P EVP/Chief Banking Officer +$49,935.42 Transaction at $17.67, now +17.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for FCF on Trend Edge →