FBNC — First Bancorp

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates FBNC Bullish with a Setup Score of 67, net conviction 34, actionability 132. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score67
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction34
Actionability132 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About First Bancorp

First Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for First Bank that provides banking products and services for individuals and businesses. The company accepts deposit products, such as checking, savings, and money market accounts; and time deposits, including certificate of deposits and individual retirement accounts. It also offers commercial business loans, commercial and residential real estate construction and mortgage loans, revolving lin… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$59.17
Market Cap$2.47B
Float40.7M
Shares Outstanding41.4M
P/E (Forward)14.64
P/E (TTM)18.55
Price/Sales (TTM)6.02
vs. Analyst Target+17.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin32.44%
Operating Margin (TTM)51.19%
Revenue (TTM)$411M
Earnings Growth (YoY)31.20%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$69.20 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $318M $81.5M $264M $117M
2021 $325M $95.6M $300M $134M
2022 $408M $147M $379M $201M
2023 $541M $104M $381M $151M
2024 $531M $76.2M $327M $116M
2025 $543M $111M $381M $155M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $128M $20.4M
Dec 2025 $121M $15.7M
Mar 2026 $158M $46.7M
Jun 2026 $133M $50.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.9%
Institutional Ownership84.7%
Short Float5.3%
% of All Funds Holding2.74%
Number of Funds Holding241

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$63.74Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$60.27Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$53.92Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$43.50Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$59.81Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$53.61Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$45.10Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$58.00 support 1.26x 3 months ago
$51.00 support 1.24x 8 months ago
$44.00 support 1.73x 14 months ago
$42.00 support 1.16x 15 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (112 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.19% 0.10% 51.79% 7.99% -19.87%
1 Day -0.30% -0.27% 41.96% 13.19% -18.77%
1 Week -0.13% -0.09% 47.32% 13.71% -13.96%
2 Weeks 0.41% 0.01% 50.00% 34.50% -20.37%
1 Month 1.45% -0.06% 49.11% 36.86% -47.82%

Next earnings: October 28, 2026 (17 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.2%56.4%39
Feb-1.2%43.6%39
Mar-0.1%53.8%39
Apr1.8%48.7%39
May0.5%45.0%40
Jun-1.4%37.5%40
Jul2.2%52.5%40
Aug-0.4%47.5%40
Sep2.3%55.0%40
Oct1.6%56.4%39
Nov4.6%66.7%39
Dec0.1%48.7%39

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 38.4% 1872
Tuesday 0.12% 40.4% 2038
Wednesday -0.01% 38.5% 2036
Thursday 0.09% 40.0% 1999
Friday 0.17% 39.9% 1987

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 84.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value-$1.5M
Net Shares Change-82,078
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Mayer Michael Goodwin -$2.6M 1 1 sell
MOORE RICHARD H Chief Executive Officer -$1.5M 1 1 sell
Capel Mary Clara -$592,264.574 3 3 sell
CRAWFORD JAMES C III -$272,565 1 1 sell
Nevin Katharine Caldwell +$14,837.13 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-09-16 Nevin Katharine Caldwell +$14,837.13 Transaction at $64.23, now -7.9%
2026-09-30 MOORE RICHARD H Chief Executive Officer -$1.5M Transaction at $62.85, now -5.9%
2026-05-21 Mayer Michael Goodwin -$2.6M Transaction at $58.58, now +1.0%
2026-02-04 CRAWFORD JAMES C III -$272,565 Transaction at $60.57, now -2.3%
2026-02-04 Capel Mary Clara -$296,554 Transaction at $59.31, now -0.2%
2026-02-03 Capel Mary Clara -$152,567.574 Transaction at $57.75, now +2.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for First Bancorp (FBNC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for FBNC on Trend Edge →