Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge rates EFC Bearish with a Setup Score of 9, net conviction 38, actionability 2. How the Setup Score works →
| Total Setup Score | 9 |
|---|---|
| Directional Bias | Bearish |
| Net Conviction | 38 |
| Actionability | 2 (in range) |
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Investment Portfolio and Longbridge. The company acquires and manages residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, non-QM, manufactured housing, subprime residential, a… Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $11.59 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.54B |
| Float | 126.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 128.9M |
| P/E (Forward) | 9.07 |
| P/E (TTM) | 7.31 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 3.56 |
| vs. Analyst Target | +28.2% to analyst PT |
| Profit Margin | 51.50% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 55.87% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $431M |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | -3.30% |
| Dividend Rate | 1.6% |
| Analyst Target Price | $14.86 (8 analysts) |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $31.3M | -$9.6M | $31.3M | $36.4M |
| 2021 | $122M | $82.5M | $122M | $137M |
| 2022 | $43.1M | -$70.0M | $43.1M | $5.7M |
| 2023 | $257M | $84.1M | $257M | $323M |
| 2024 | $282M | $146M | $282M | $403M |
| 2025 | $675M | $147M | $568M | $459M |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | $123M | $36.6M |
| Dec 2025 | $147M | $21.6M |
| Mar 2026 | $229M | $105M |
| Jun 2026 | $213M | $58.6M |
| Insider Ownership | 2.6% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 53.6% |
| Short Float | 5.8% |
| % of All Funds Holding | 2.80% |
| Number of Funds Holding | 246 |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $12.88 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $13.00 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $13.11 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $12.84 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $12.76 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $12.97 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $12.74 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $14.20 | resistance | 1.29x | 18 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | 0.24% | 0.22% | 59.38% | 3.83% | -3.70% |
| 1 Day | 0.33% | 0.21% | 60.94% | 5.51% | -4.74% |
| 1 Week | 0.90% | 0.86% | 62.50% | 11.50% | -9.49% |
| 2 Weeks | 0.43% | 0.77% | 56.25% | 14.81% | -11.89% |
| 1 Month | -1.42% | -0.64% | 48.44% | 15.51% | -61.09% |
Next earnings: November 4, 2026 (26 days away)
| Month | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 2.7% | 68.8% | 16 |
| Feb | 0.4% | 50.0% | 16 |
| Mar | -4.2% | 43.8% | 16 |
| Apr | 6.6% | 62.5% | 16 |
| May | -0.2% | 50.0% | 16 |
| Jun | 0.9% | 50.0% | 16 |
| Jul | 0.2% | 31.3% | 16 |
| Aug | -0.4% | 37.5% | 16 |
| Sep | -3.8% | 18.8% | 16 |
| Oct | 0.5% | 46.7% | 15 |
| Nov | 0.8% | 56.3% | 16 |
| Dec | -1.8% | 25.0% | 16 |
| Day | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | -0.11% | 49.2% | 754 |
| Tuesday | 0.01% | 51.1% | 827 |
| Wednesday | 0.01% | 48.8% | 824 |
| Thursday | 0.03% | 51.2% | 809 |
| Friday | 0.09% | 51.6% | 806 |
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 53.6%
Total insider ownership: 2.6%
Founder-led management: Laurence Penn (CEO, President & Director), Mike Vranos (Co-Chief Investment Officer)
Full insider transaction history and smart buy/sell sentiment summary available on Trend Edge.
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.
Get the full AI Consult analysis for EFC on Trend Edge →