DX — Dynex Capital Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Dynex Capital Inc

Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Agency MBS have a guaranty of principal payment by an agency of the U.S. government or a U.S. government-sponsored entity, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Non-Agency MBS do not have a guaranty of principal or interest payments. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$12.72
Market Cap$2.76B
Float214.1M
Shares Outstanding215.2M
P/E (Forward)9.75
P/E (TTM)6.06
Price/Sales (TTM)9.10
vs. Analyst Target+18.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin79.54%
Operating Margin (TTM)135.96%
Revenue (TTM)$304M
Earnings Growth (YoY)92.30%
Dividend Rate2.0%
Analyst Target Price$15.10 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $232M $178M $232M $210M
2021 $66.8M $102M $66.8M $108M
2022 -$2.4M $143M -$2.4M $187M
2023 -$40.2M -$6.1M -$42.4M -$73.1M
2024 $318M $114M $318M $428M
2025 $534M $319M $534M $738M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $112M -$13.6M
Sep 2025 $150M $150M
Dec 2025 $177M $185M
Mar 2026 $257M -$80.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.7%
Institutional Ownership44.4%
Short Float4.8%
% of All Funds Holding3.02%
Number of Funds Holding248

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$13.06Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$13.38Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$13.04Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$12.76Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$13.32Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$13.00Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$12.58Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$13.80 resistance 1.44x 1 months ago
$12.30 support 1.37x 6 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (111 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.24% 0.00% 42.34% 9.09% -10.09%
1 Day -0.02% -0.15% 40.54% 27.27% -8.84%
1 Week 0.25% 0.30% 52.25% 24.24% -35.56%
2 Weeks -0.12% 0.00% 49.55% 38.10% -45.19%
1 Month 0.58% -0.15% 47.75% 100.00% -62.22%

Next earnings: July 9, 2026 (43 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan5.5%63.2%38
Feb-1.9%44.7%38
Mar0.5%53.8%39
Apr2.2%53.8%39
May2.7%52.6%38
Jun-0.5%60.5%38
Jul0.2%50.0%38
Aug0.4%52.6%38
Sep-2.1%47.4%38
Oct-2.6%34.2%38
Nov0.8%52.6%38
Dec-0.3%47.4%38

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 43.5% 1815
Tuesday -0.02% 43.9% 1977
Wednesday -0.06% 44.4% 1975
Thursday 0.06% 42.6% 1940
Friday 0.17% 45.6% 1931

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 44.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value+$127,068.134
Net Shares Change10,460
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Popenoe Smriti Laxman Co-CEO and President +$76,164.134 2 2 buy
COLLIGAN ROBERT S CFO and COO +$50,904 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-30 Popenoe Smriti Laxman Co-CEO and President +$24,380 Transaction at $12.19, now +4.3%
2025-09-29 COLLIGAN ROBERT S CFO and COO +$50,904 Transaction at $12.12, now +5.0%
2025-09-29 Popenoe Smriti Laxman Co-CEO and President +$51,784.134 Transaction at $12.16, now +4.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Dynex Capital Inc (DX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for DX on Trend Edge →