CBSH — Commerce Bancshares Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates CBSH Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 23, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction23
Actionability0 (no mans land)

Key signals behind this score

About Commerce Bancshares Inc

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, Commercial, and Wealth. The Retail Banking segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as au… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$58.63
Market Cap$8.43B
Float130.5M
Shares Outstanding143.4M
P/E (Forward)13.23
P/E (TTM)14.45
Price/Sales (TTM)4.57
vs. Analyst Target+11.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin31.64%
Operating Margin (TTM)45.13%
Revenue (TTM)$1.84B
Earnings Growth (YoY)1.20%
Dividend Rate1.1%
Analyst Target Price$65.22 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.39B $354M $1.21B $485M
2021 $1.44B $531M $1.49B $731M
2022 $1.57B $488M $1.48B $679M
2023 $1.97B $477M $1.55B $669M
2024 $2.09B $526M $1.63B $734M
2025 $2.14B $566M $1.71B $770M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $544M $142M
Dec 2025 $543M $141M
Mar 2026 $584M $142M
Jun 2026 $499M $160M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.5%
Institutional Ownership78.1%
Short Float5.1%
% of All Funds Holding5.73%
Number of Funds Holding504

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$58.80Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$53.75Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$55.59Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$53.10Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$53.64Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$56.13Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$52.82Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$52.00 support 1.17x 1 months ago
$50.00 support 1.08x 3 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.23% 0.19% 61.48% 5.44% -2.35%
1 Day 0.27% 0.34% 55.74% 9.56% -5.49%
1 Week 0.93% 0.82% 64.75% 14.13% -8.08%
2 Weeks 1.65% 1.51% 69.67% 14.11% -10.57%
1 Month 2.85% 2.62% 71.90% 18.61% -11.98%

Next earnings: October 15, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.5%47.8%46
Feb2.1%65.2%46
Mar-0.1%54.3%46
Apr1.7%59.6%47
May1.2%63.8%47
Jun-0.8%46.8%47
Jul2.8%66.0%47
Aug0.4%56.5%46
Sep-0.6%45.7%46
Oct1.4%63.0%46
Nov3.6%71.7%46
Dec0.5%58.7%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 44.6% 2212
Tuesday 0.07% 43.6% 2401
Wednesday 0.06% 45.2% 2399
Thursday 0.03% 44.6% 2353
Friday 0.07% 44.4% 2337

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 78.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings17
Net Value-$4.6M
Net Shares Change-58,065
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings15
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
KIM CHARLES G Exec. Vice President and CFO -$1.3M 1 2 sell
Kemper John W President and CEO -$582,696.511 1 2 sell
Holmes Robert S Executive Vice President -$301,000 1 1 sell
DUNN TIMOTHY S +$119,275 1 1 buy
Brooks Derrick Senior Vice President -$87,273.035 1 1 sell
Roller David L. Senior Vice President -$71,577.97 1 2 sell
Orf David L Exec. Vice President & CCO -$55,412.742 1 2 sell
JAKOVICH KIM L Senior Vice President -$48,826.05 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-03 – 2026-02-13 7 6 -$2.2M 7 C-suite
2026-03-09 – 2026-03-17 3 3 +$25,948.165 2 C-suite
2026-07-29 – 2026-08-06 5 5 -$2.3M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-29 KIM CHARLES G Exec. Vice President and CFO -$1.3M Transaction at $53.62, now +9.3%
2026-08-18 Orf David L Exec. Vice President & CCO -$55,412.742 Transaction at $54.88, now +6.8%
2026-08-06 Roller David L. Senior Vice President -$71,577.97 Transaction at $55.20, now +6.2%
2026-07-30 Kemper John W President and CEO -$582,696.511 Transaction at $55.11, now +6.4%
2026-07-29 Brooks Derrick Senior Vice President -$87,273.035 Transaction at $59.32, now -1.2%
2026-07-31 Holmes Robert S Executive Vice President -$301,000 Transaction at $60.20, now -2.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for CBSH on Trend Edge →