BXMT — Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates, acquires, and manages loans and other debt or credit-oriented investments collateralized by or relating to commercial real estate. The company's investment portfolio consists of senior floating rate mortgage loans that are secured by a first-priority mortgage on commercial real estate assets. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$18.28
Market Cap$3.13B
Float159.6M
Shares Outstanding168.7M
P/E (Forward)57.14
P/E (TTM)30.97
Price/Sales (TTM)6.71
vs. Analyst Target+14.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin22.19%
Operating Margin (TTM)-6.14%
Revenue (TTM)$467M
Earnings Growth (YoY)9.70%
Dividend Rate1.9%
Analyst Target Price$21.00 (8 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $432M $138M $432M $81.1M
2021 $514M $419M $514M $420M
2022 $1.32B $249M $1.21B $965M
2023 $2.01B $247M $1.89B $1.62B
2024 $1.77B -$204M $1.65B $1.10B
2025 $1.52B $110M $1.17B $1.17B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $393M $7.0M
Sep 2025 $373M $63.4M
Dec 2025 $389M $39.6M
Mar 2026 $380M -$6.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.3%
Institutional Ownership68.2%
Short Float5.3%
% of All Funds Holding3.76%
Number of Funds Holding309

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$18.99Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$19.12Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$19.10Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$20.20Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$18.99Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$18.96Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$19.34Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$20.00 resistance 1.07x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (111 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.39% 0.17% 54.95% 9.83% -3.13%
1 Day 1.26% 0.26% 54.05% 50.79% -8.05%
1 Week 0.20% 0.00% 49.55% 34.09% -23.68%
2 Weeks 0.32% 0.00% 48.65% 35.90% -32.35%
1 Month 0.17% 0.64% 56.36% 49.22% -53.21%

Next earnings: July 18, 2026 (49 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.7%54.3%46
Feb1.6%43.5%46
Mar-0.4%41.3%46
Apr4.9%43.5%46
May-0.2%44.4%45
Jun-1.4%42.2%45
Jul0.3%42.2%45
Aug2.8%57.8%45
Sep0.1%37.8%45
Oct-2.1%44.4%45
Nov-1.5%55.6%45
Dec-1.2%37.8%45

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.07% 37.2% 2161
Tuesday 0.03% 37.5% 2349
Wednesday 0.07% 38.5% 2345
Thursday 0.02% 38.4% 2301
Friday 0.14% 39.5% 2287

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 68.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings16
Net Value-$540,702.999
Net Shares Change1,717
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings16
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Keenan Katharine A CEO and President -$132,601.12 1 N/A
Pena Fernando Austin President -$91,692.61 2 N/A
Marone Anthony F. JR Chief Financial Officer -$79,093.679 4 N/A
URBASZEK MARCIN Deputy Chief Financial Officer -$24,523.8 3 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-06-18 – 2025-06-18 3 3 -$177,050.498 3 C-suite
2025-09-18 – 2025-09-18 3 3 -$116,890.353 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-17 URBASZEK MARCIN Deputy Chief Financial Officer -$8,116.04 Transaction at $20.29, now -9.9%
2025-12-17 Marone Anthony F. JR Chief Financial Officer -$20,556.25 Transaction at $20.31, now -10.0%
2026-04-01 Pena Fernando Austin President -$31,458.745 Transaction at $18.88, now -3.2%
2026-01-02 Pena Fernando Austin President -$60,233.865 Transaction at $19.24, now -5.0%
2025-06-18 Marone Anthony F. JR Chief Financial Officer -$29,133.378 Transaction at $19.20, now -4.8%
2025-06-18 Keenan Katharine A CEO and President -$132,601.12 Transaction at $19.13, now -4.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (BXMT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for BXMT on Trend Edge →