BSRR — Sierra Bancorp

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates BSRR Bullish with a Setup Score of 29, net conviction 31, actionability 28. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score29
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction31
Actionability28 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Sierra Bancorp

Sierra Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Bank of the Sierra that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals and businesses in California. It accepts various deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market demand accounts, time deposits, retirement accounts, and sweep accounts. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$41.08
Market Cap$533M
Float11.5M
Shares Outstanding13.1M
P/E (Forward)11.44
P/E (TTM)11.68
Price/Sales (TTM)3.48
vs. Analyst Target+1.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin29.89%
Operating Margin (TTM)43.39%
Revenue (TTM)$153M
Earnings Growth (YoY)47.70%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$41.50 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $127M $35.4M $113M $50.6M
2021 $131M $43.0M $131M $61.5M
2022 $142M $33.7M $120M $48.5M
2023 $169M $34.8M $114M $49.7M
2024 $191M $40.6M $134M $56.7M
2025 $202M $42.3M $149M $59.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $49.0M $10.6M
Sep 2025 $49.7M $9.7M
Dec 2025 $50.6M $12.9M
Mar 2026 $49.2M $12.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership10.8%
Institutional Ownership60.3%
Short Float3.0%
% of All Funds Holding1.31%
Number of Funds Holding108

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$39.39Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$34.77Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$31.82Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$25.75Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$35.37Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$32.19Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$27.07Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$37.70 support 1.38x 0 months ago
$32.80 support 1.69x 5 months ago
$28.60 support 1.06x 7 months ago
$22.30 support 1.78x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (110 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.27% 0.00% 48.18% 7.53% -4.28%
1 Day 0.45% 0.03% 50.00% 9.52% -6.90%
1 Week 0.62% 0.26% 53.64% 15.73% -14.24%
2 Weeks 0.68% 0.67% 53.64% 17.12% -17.08%
1 Month 0.48% 0.78% 56.88% 29.71% -53.15%

Next earnings: July 27, 2026 (15 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.5%53.1%32
Feb-0.3%65.6%32
Mar1.4%40.6%32
Apr0.6%31.3%32
May2.7%54.5%33
Jun-0.3%51.5%33
Jul11.5%68.8%32
Aug-1.7%50.0%32
Sep-0.0%34.4%32
Oct-0.1%43.8%32
Nov2.6%46.9%32
Dec2.2%53.1%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.14% 41.8% 1523
Tuesday 0.10% 42.2% 1665
Wednesday 0.04% 42.2% 1663
Thursday 0.05% 40.7% 1631
Friday 0.13% 42.4% 1624

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 60.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 10.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings16
Net Value-$797,461.032
Net Shares Change-16,719
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Boyle Hugh F EVP/Chief Credit Officer -$382,091 1 1 sell
McPhaill Kevin J President/CEO -$197,296 1 1 sell
Treece Christopher G EVP/Chief Financial Officer -$110,668 1 1 sell
Olague Michael EVP/Chief Banking Officer -$107,200.032 1 1 sell
HOLLY JAMES C -$103,415.5 1 1 sell
Christenson Vonn R -$49,175.905 2 2 sell
Castle Julie G -$37,829.975 2 2 sell
Dutto Laurence S +$11,511.32 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-03 – 2025-12-11 3 3 -$23,574 1 C-suite
2026-02-06 – 2026-02-17 4 3 -$338,541.475 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-29 Boyle Hugh F EVP/Chief Credit Officer -$382,091 Transaction at $38.21, now +7.5%
2026-05-22 Treece Christopher G EVP/Chief Financial Officer -$110,668 Transaction at $32.64, now +25.8%
2026-05-19 Christenson Vonn R -$10,320.453 Transaction at $33.11, now +24.1%
2026-05-12 Christenson Vonn R -$38,855.452 Transaction at $33.13, now +24.0%
2026-02-10 McPhaill Kevin J President/CEO -$197,296 Transaction at $32.42, now +26.7%
2025-11-17 Dutto Laurence S +$11,511.32 Transaction at $28.78, now +42.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for BSRR on Trend Edge →