BSRR — Sierra Bancorp

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates BSRR Bullish with a Setup Score of 45, net conviction 37, actionability 55. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score45
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction37
Actionability55 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Sierra Bancorp

Sierra Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Bank of the Sierra that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals and businesses in California. It accepts various deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market demand accounts, time deposits, retirement accounts, and sweep accounts. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$39.65
Market Cap$514M
Float11.4M
Shares Outstanding13.0M
P/E (Forward)11.44
P/E (TTM)11.67
Price/Sales (TTM)3.39
vs. Analyst Target+8.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin29.66%
Operating Margin (TTM)36.10%
Revenue (TTM)$152M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-1.30%
Dividend Rate1.1%
Analyst Target Price$43.00 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $127M $35.4M $113M $50.6M
2021 $131M $43.0M $131M $61.5M
2022 $142M $33.7M $120M $48.5M
2023 $169M $34.8M $114M $49.7M
2024 $191M $40.6M $134M $56.7M
2025 $202M $42.3M $149M $59.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $49.7M $9.7M
Dec 2025 $50.6M $12.9M
Mar 2026 $49.2M $12.5M
Jun 2026 $49.5M $9.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership10.9%
Institutional Ownership62.3%
Short Float3.3%
% of All Funds Holding1.43%
Number of Funds Holding126

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$40.91Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$36.92Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$32.80Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$26.45Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$36.43Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$32.71Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$27.64Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$37.70 support 1.38x 1 months ago
$32.80 support 1.69x 6 months ago
$28.60 support 1.06x 8 months ago
$22.30 support 1.78x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (111 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.27% 0.00% 48.65% 7.53% -4.28%
1 Day 0.45% 0.00% 49.55% 9.52% -6.90%
1 Week 0.60% 0.23% 53.15% 15.73% -14.24%
2 Weeks 0.66% 0.57% 53.15% 17.12% -17.08%
1 Month 0.50% 0.86% 57.27% 29.71% -53.15%

Next earnings: October 15, 2026 (50 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.5%53.1%32
Feb-0.3%65.6%32
Mar1.4%40.6%32
Apr0.6%31.3%32
May2.7%54.5%33
Jun-0.3%51.5%33
Jul11.1%66.7%33
Aug-1.7%50.0%32
Sep-0.0%34.4%32
Oct-0.1%43.8%32
Nov2.6%46.9%32
Dec2.2%53.1%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.13% 41.7% 1529
Tuesday 0.10% 42.2% 1672
Wednesday 0.04% 42.2% 1670
Thursday 0.06% 40.8% 1638
Friday 0.13% 42.4% 1631

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 62.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 10.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings15
Net Value-$690,261
Net Shares Change-13,143
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Boyle Hugh F EVP/Chief Credit Officer -$382,091 1 1 sell
McPhaill Kevin J President/CEO -$197,296 1 1 sell
Treece Christopher G EVP/Chief Financial Officer -$110,668 1 1 sell
Castle Julie G -$78,532.775 3 3 sell
Christenson Vonn R -$49,175.905 2 2 sell
Dutto Laurence S +$11,511.32 1 1 buy
Dabney Cindy L SVP/Chief Accounting Officer -$206 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-03 – 2025-12-11 3 3 -$23,574 1 C-suite
2026-02-06 – 2026-02-17 4 3 -$338,541.475 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-29 Boyle Hugh F EVP/Chief Credit Officer -$382,091 Transaction at $38.21, now +3.8%
2026-08-03 Castle Julie G -$40,702.8 Transaction at $40.70, now -2.6%
2026-05-22 Treece Christopher G EVP/Chief Financial Officer -$110,668 Transaction at $32.64, now +21.5%
2025-11-17 Dutto Laurence S +$11,511.32 Transaction at $28.78, now +37.8%
2026-05-19 Christenson Vonn R -$10,320.453 Transaction at $33.11, now +19.8%
2026-05-12 Christenson Vonn R -$38,855.452 Transaction at $33.13, now +19.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for BSRR on Trend Edge →