BFST — Business First Bancshares Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Business First Bancshares Inc

Business First Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for b1BANK that provides various banking products and services in Louisiana and Texas. It offers various deposit products and services, including checking and savings, time, and money market accounts; and certificates of deposits, remote deposit capture, and direct deposit services. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$28.20
Market Cap$911M
Float30.9M
Shares Outstanding32.7M
P/E (Forward)9.68
P/E (TTM)9.89
Price/Sales (TTM)2.81
vs. Analyst Target+14.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin28.05%
Operating Margin (TTM)36.48%
Revenue (TTM)$324M
Earnings Growth (YoY)4.60%
Dividend Rate0.6%
Analyst Target Price$32.40 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $169M $30.0M $135M $39.9M
2021 $203M $52.1M $179M $68.7M
2022 $264M $54.3M $217M $73.4M
2023 $386M $71.0M $243M $95.3M
2024 $458M $65.1M $259M $88.3M
2025 $512M $87.9M $312M $119M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $126M $22.1M
Sep 2025 $130M $22.9M
Dec 2025 $130M $22.4M
Mar 2026 $134M $23.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership5.1%
Institutional Ownership53.1%
Short Float1.8%
% of All Funds Holding1.85%
Number of Funds Holding152

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$27.80Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$26.46Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$25.75Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$23.00Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$26.34Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$25.84Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$23.25Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$26.30 support 1.12x 3 months ago
$24.50 support 1.09x 5 months ago
$28.30 resistance 1.53x 16 months ago
$21.90 support 1.66x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (33 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.20% 0.73% 72.73% 16.70% -5.75%
1 Day 1.15% 0.06% 51.52% 23.16% -5.10%
1 Week 0.60% 1.29% 57.58% 21.11% -15.92%
2 Weeks 1.66% 2.74% 66.67% 23.75% -20.63%
1 Month 2.63% 1.49% 65.63% 19.53% -10.13%

Next earnings: July 27, 2026 (61 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.3%25.0%8
Feb0.4%37.5%8
Mar-8.8%12.5%8
Apr-3.2%37.5%8
May-0.5%50.0%8
Jun2.6%75.0%8
Jul5.7%50.0%8
Aug0.7%62.5%8
Sep-1.3%50.0%8
Oct6.2%87.5%8
Nov3.2%75.0%8
Dec2.0%62.5%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 52.5% 381
Tuesday 0.04% 48.4% 419
Wednesday 0.02% 43.9% 415
Thursday 0.01% 49.3% 408
Friday 0.08% 49.9% 409

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 53.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 5.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings23
Net Value-$823,872.51
Net Shares Change-58,292
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings13
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Cummings George W. III -$1.1M 3 3 sell
MELVILLE DAVID R. III President and CEO -$146,764.8 1 1 sell
Vascocu Norman Jerome Jr President of b1Bank -$72,481.5 1 1 sell
Day Rick D. +$41,325 1 1 buy
Manning Kathryn EVP and Chief Risk Officer -$33,824.7 1 1 sell
Roemer Heather G. EVP, CAO -$31,149.3 1 1 sell
Strong Saundra EVP and General Counsel -$26,317.2 1 1 sell
MCCOLLISTER ROLFE H. JR. +$3,547.2 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-02 – 2025-12-16 5 5 -$324,576.09 5 C-suite
2026-02-27 – 2026-03-06 8 6 -$1.4M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-03 Vascocu Norman Jerome Jr President of b1Bank -$72,481.5 Transaction at $27.30, now +3.3%
2026-03-03 Strong Saundra EVP and General Counsel -$26,317.2 Transaction at $27.30, now +3.3%
2026-03-03 Roemer Heather G. EVP, CAO -$31,149.3 Transaction at $27.30, now +3.3%
2026-03-03 Manning Kathryn EVP and Chief Risk Officer -$33,824.7 Transaction at $27.30, now +3.3%
2026-03-03 MELVILLE DAVID R. III President and CEO -$146,764.8 Transaction at $27.30, now +3.3%
2026-02-27 Cummings George W. III -$560,000 Transaction at $28.00, now +0.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for BFST on Trend Edge →