Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
About Arbor Realty Trust
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. The company invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, … Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: REIT-Mortgage
Exchange: NYSE
IPO Date: April 7, 2004
Headquarters: 333 Earle Ovington Boulevard, Uniondale, NY, United States, 11553
Founder-Led: Yes — Ivan Kaufman (Chairman, President & CEO)
Key Metrics
Current Price
$5.50
Market Cap
$1.23B
Float
184.0M
Shares Outstanding
192.4M
P/E (Forward)
11.74
P/E (TTM)
14.78
Price/Sales (TTM)
2.32
vs. Analyst Target
+36.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
22.43%
Operating Margin (TTM)
18.75%
Revenue (TTM)
$530M
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.00%
Dividend Rate
1.1%
Analyst Target Price
$7.50 (4 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2020
$439M
$171M
$397M
$463M
2021
$661M
$339M
$615M
$702M
2022
$654M
$326M
$598M
$998M
2023
$719M
$371M
$662M
$1.40B
2024
$628M
$265M
$565M
$1.18B
2025
$1.21B
$149M
$1.14B
$902M
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Jun 2025
$302M
$34.3M
Sep 2025
$299M
$48.8M
Dec 2025
$314M
$24.9M
Mar 2026
$293M
$11.0M
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
2.8%
Institutional Ownership
62.3%
Short Float
0.0%
% of All Funds Holding
3.54%
Number of Funds Holding
291
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$7.03
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$8.78
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$10.41
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$12.51
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$8.77
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$10.57
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$12.22
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$7.90
resistance
1.52x
0 months ago
$8.80
resistance
1.05x
4 months ago
$10.00
resistance
1.11x
5 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (88 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
0.22%
0.23%
62.50%
5.54%
-7.01%
1 Day
0.30%
0.20%
53.41%
12.11%
-24.00%
1 Week
-0.84%
-0.07%
48.86%
24.56%
-45.60%
2 Weeks
-2.95%
-1.11%
43.18%
29.82%
-55.91%
1 Month
-2.49%
-1.00%
41.38%
42.11%
-69.69%
Next earnings: July 27, 2026 (59 days away)
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
1.0%
59.1%
22
Feb
0.0%
68.2%
22
Mar
-1.4%
36.4%
22
Apr
17.0%
54.5%
22
May
-2.7%
45.5%
22
Jun
0.8%
54.5%
22
Jul
4.7%
72.7%
22
Aug
-1.3%
45.5%
22
Sep
2.1%
50.0%
22
Oct
-4.9%
36.4%
22
Nov
-0.6%
45.5%
22
Dec
1.5%
63.6%
22
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
0.06%
51.0%
1042
Tuesday
0.11%
48.7%
1144
Wednesday
-0.05%
47.6%
1143
Thursday
0.08%
48.0%
1122
Friday
-0.05%
48.8%
1116
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 62.3%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 2.8%
Founder-led management: Ivan Kaufman (Chairman, President & CEO)
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Arbor Realty Trust
(ABR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model.
The analysis covers five layers:
technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum,
volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals),
qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions),
share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and
fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit,
stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward.
Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup,
AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.