ABR — Arbor Realty Trust

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ABR Bearish with a Setup Score of 41, net conviction 42, actionability 41. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score41
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction42
Actionability41 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Arbor Realty Trust

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. The company invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$5.05
Market Cap$1.03B
Float184.0M
Shares Outstanding192.4M
P/E (Forward)11.74
P/E (TTM)12.40
Price/Sales (TTM)1.95
vs. Analyst Target+31.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin22.43%
Operating Margin (TTM)18.75%
Revenue (TTM)$530M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-98.00%
Dividend Rate1.1%
Analyst Target Price$6.63 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $439M $171M $397M $463M
2021 $661M $339M $615M $702M
2022 $654M $326M $598M $998M
2023 $719M $371M $662M $1.40B
2024 $628M $265M $565M $1.18B
2025 $1.21B $149M $1.14B $902M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $302M $34.3M
Sep 2025 $299M $48.8M
Dec 2025 $314M $24.9M
Mar 2026 $293M $11.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.8%
Institutional Ownership62.1%
Short Float23.6%
% of All Funds Holding3.54%
Number of Funds Holding291

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$5.57Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$7.76Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.73Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$12.21Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$7.42Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.63Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$11.82Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$7.90 resistance 1.64x 1 months ago
$8.80 resistance 1.05x 6 months ago
$10.00 resistance 1.11x 7 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (88 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.22% 0.23% 62.50% 5.54% -7.01%
1 Day 0.30% 0.20% 53.41% 12.11% -24.00%
1 Week -0.84% -0.07% 48.86% 24.56% -45.60%
2 Weeks -2.95% -1.11% 43.18% 29.82% -55.91%
1 Month -2.49% -1.00% 41.38% 42.11% -69.69%

Next earnings: August 7, 2026 (25 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.0%59.1%22
Feb0.0%68.2%22
Mar-1.4%36.4%22
Apr17.0%54.5%22
May-3.8%43.5%23
Jun0.5%52.2%23
Jul4.7%72.7%22
Aug-1.3%45.5%22
Sep2.1%50.0%22
Oct-4.9%36.4%22
Nov-0.6%45.5%22
Dec1.5%63.6%22

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.05% 50.8% 1048
Tuesday 0.11% 48.7% 1149
Wednesday -0.06% 47.4% 1149
Thursday 0.08% 48.1% 1128
Friday -0.05% 48.9% 1120

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 62.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.8%

Founder-led management: Ivan Kaufman (Chairman, President & CEO)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings11
Net Value+$497,848.65
Net Shares Change86,400
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
KAUFMAN IVAN COB, CEO and President +$469,362.6 1 1 buy
Green William C +$115,456 1 1 buy
Tsunis George +$67,351.2 6 7 buy, 1 sell
Friedman David Erwin CCO & Head of Non-Agcy Prod +$28,486.05 2 2 buy, 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-17 – 2025-12-01 4 4 +$647,035 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-18 Tsunis George +$20,463.3 Transaction at $5.83, now -13.4%
2026-05-13 Friedman David Erwin CCO & Head of Non-Agcy Prod +$7,669.65 Transaction at $6.86, now -26.3%
2026-06-05 Tsunis George +$267 Transaction at $5.58, now -9.4%
2026-05-20 Tsunis George +$20,508.95 Transaction at $5.86, now -13.8%
2026-06-03 Tsunis George +$5,480 Transaction at $5.48, now -7.8%
2026-05-27 Tsunis George +$5,505 Transaction at $5.50, now -8.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ABR on Trend Edge →