WCN — Waste Connections Inc

✨ Hidden Gem Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates WCN Bullish with a Setup Score of 30, net conviction 37, actionability 24. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score30
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction37
Actionability24 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Waste Connections Inc

Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum met… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$166.15
Market Cap$42.35B
Float251.2M
Shares Outstanding251.6M
P/E (Forward)21.46
P/E (TTM)40.86
Price/Sales (TTM)4.34
vs. Analyst Target+20.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin10.86%
Operating Margin (TTM)19.70%
Revenue (TTM)$9.76B
Earnings Growth (YoY)4.40%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$200.60 (25 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $5.45B $205M $2.17B $1.60B
2021 $6.15B $618M $2.50B $1.89B
2022 $7.21B $836M $2.88B $2.19B
2023 $8.02B $763M $3.28B $2.35B
2024 $8.92B $618M $3.73B $2.39B
2025 $9.50B $1.08B $3.70B $3.01B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $2.46B $286M
Dec 2025 $2.41B $262M
Mar 2026 $2.37B $219M
Jun 2026 $2.56B $599M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.3%
Institutional Ownership92.1%
Short Float1.3%
% of All Funds Holding9.41%
Number of Funds Holding828

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$168.52Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$165.49Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$174.96Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$163.26Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$166.80Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$176.66Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$167.97Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$150.00 support 1.42x 1 months ago
$171.00 resistance 1.09x 4 months ago
$174.00 resistance 1.35x 6 months ago
$184.00 resistance 1.11x 10 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.35% 0.13% 57.52% 10.53% -10.71%
1 Day 0.77% 0.40% 57.52% 21.06% -8.73%
1 Week 1.52% 0.97% 56.64% 20.31% -14.43%
2 Weeks 1.90% 0.76% 54.87% 32.66% -17.11%
1 Month 2.16% 1.29% 63.39% 57.79% -30.20%

Next earnings: October 20, 2026 (54 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.8%42.9%28
Feb2.3%71.4%28
Mar3.2%85.7%28
Apr2.5%75.0%28
May2.9%60.7%28
Jun2.4%58.6%29
Jul2.6%72.4%29
Aug0.2%46.4%28
Sep0.1%50.0%28
Oct0.4%50.0%28
Nov0.1%53.6%28
Dec2.3%64.3%28

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.00% 48.9% 1335
Tuesday 0.08% 50.6% 1459
Wednesday 0.09% 50.1% 1459
Thursday 0.12% 53.6% 1431
Friday 0.07% 53.2% 1422

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 92.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.3%

Founder-led management: Ron Mittelstaedt (Founder, Chief Executive Officer, President and Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings15
Net Value+$2.7M
Net Shares Change10,919
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings14
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
MITTELSTAEDT RONALD J President & CEO +$7.6M 1 1 buy
Shea Patrick James Exec VP, General Counsel & Sec -$1.2M 1 1 sell
HANSEN ERIC Senior Vice President and CIO -$988,924.8 1 1 sell
Cloninger Robert Michael SR VP, Deputy General Counsel -$480,749.026 1 1 sell
LITTLE JAMES Executive VP Engineering -$427,167.9 1 1 sell
RIVARD PHILIP SR VP Business Development -$416,425 1 1 sell
Netherton Susan SR VP People, Training & Dev -$290,500 1 1 sell
CRAFT JASON Executive Vice President & COO -$234,887.25 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-04-29 – 2026-05-13 3 3 +$6.2M 3 C-suite
2026-08-17 – 2026-08-21 3 3 -$825,925 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-17 Netherton Susan SR VP People, Training & Dev -$290,500 Transaction at $166.00, now +0.1%
2026-07-30 Cloninger Robert Michael SR VP, Deputy General Counsel -$480,749.026 Transaction at $171.02, now -2.9%
2026-06-09 Shea Patrick James Exec VP, General Counsel & Sec -$1.2M Transaction at $156.26, now +6.3%
2026-08-21 NIELSEN III ROBERT SR VP Operations -$119,000 Transaction at $170.00, now -2.3%
2026-08-20 RIVARD PHILIP SR VP Business Development -$416,425 Transaction at $166.57, now -0.3%
2026-07-31 NIELSEN III ROBERT SR VP Operations -$51,930 Transaction at $173.10, now -4.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Waste Connections Inc (WCN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for WCN on Trend Edge →