VST — Vistra Corp.

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates VST Bearish with a Setup Score of 55, net conviction 26, actionability 117. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score55
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction26
Actionability117 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Vistra Corp.

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$158.86
Market Cap$53.27B
Float314.5M
Shares Outstanding337.2M
P/E (Forward)17.21
P/E (TTM)26.37
Price/Sales (TTM)2.74
vs. Analyst Target+40.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin11.53%
Operating Margin (TTM)26.58%
Revenue (TTM)$19.45B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-52.30%
Dividend Rate0.9%
Analyst Target Price$222.89 (18 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $11.06B $636M $2.50B $3.16B
2021 $13.33B -$1.27B $60.0M $852M
2022 $17.84B -$1.23B $3.81B $1.29B
2023 $15.54B $1.49B $5.17B $4.62B
2024 $19.38B $2.66B $7.69B $7.19B
2025 $16.97B $944M $2.97B $5.25B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $4.25B $327M
Sep 2025 $4.97B $652M
Dec 2025 $2.34B $233M
Mar 2026 $4.65B $1.03B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.8%
Institutional Ownership90.9%
Short Float4.9%
% of All Funds Holding14.82%
Number of Funds Holding1,218

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$153.78Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$164.80Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$165.84Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$99.01Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$164.66Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$164.06Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$113.72Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$170.00 resistance 1.01x 3 months ago
$85.00 support 1.22x 21 months ago
$76.00 support 2.13x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (38 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.22% 0.27% 65.79% 4.41% -3.31%
1 Day 0.65% 0.97% 63.16% 4.73% -9.35%
1 Week 0.34% 0.07% 50.00% 18.33% -12.07%
2 Weeks 1.20% 0.15% 52.63% 19.30% -28.81%
1 Month 1.98% 1.83% 63.16% 34.19% -20.28%

Next earnings: August 6, 2026 (26 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.2%60.0%10
Feb-0.5%40.0%10
Mar0.9%60.0%10
Apr5.5%70.0%10
May5.5%70.0%10
Jun1.5%40.0%10
Jul1.3%55.6%9
Aug4.1%66.7%9
Sep4.3%66.7%9
Oct1.4%55.6%9
Nov3.7%60.0%10
Dec-0.7%40.0%10

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.03% 50.0% 458
Tuesday 0.18% 51.0% 504
Wednesday 0.29% 53.3% 501
Thursday 0.03% 51.7% 493
Friday 0.17% 50.4% 492

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 90.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings30
Net Value-$165M
Net Shares Change12,354
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings26
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
BURKE JAMES A President and CEO -$11.9M 1 N/A
Kirby Carrie Lee EVP and Chief Admin. Officer -$8.8M 1 1 sell
HUDSON SCOTT A EVP & President Vistra Retail -$8.4M 1 1 sell
HELM SCOTT B -$4.0M 1 N/A
Moore Stephanie Zapata EVP and General Counsel -$3.0M 2 1 sell
Acosta Arcilia -$2.5M 1 N/A
Montemayor Margaret SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$1.6M 2 2 sell
SULT JOHN R -$1.1M 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-18 – 2025-11-26 3 3 -$18.6M 3 C-suite
2026-06-16 – 2026-06-23 4 4 -$7.7M

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-04 Montemayor Margaret SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$736,000 Transaction at $160.00, now -0.7%
2026-05-29 Montemayor Margaret SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$824,800 Transaction at $164.96, now -3.7%
2026-06-23 Acosta Arcilia -$2.5M Transaction at $167.52, now -5.2%
2025-11-26 Moore Stephanie Zapata EVP and General Counsel -$1.4M Transaction at $173.35, now -8.4%
2025-11-18 Kirby Carrie Lee EVP and Chief Admin. Officer -$8.8M Transaction at $98.86, now +60.7%
2025-11-18 HUDSON SCOTT A EVP & President Vistra Retail -$8.4M Transaction at $94.27, now +68.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Vistra Corp. (VST) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for VST on Trend Edge →