HNRG — Hallador Energy Company

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates HNRG Bullish with a Setup Score of 39, net conviction 30, actionability 51. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score39
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction30
Actionability51 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Hallador Energy Company

Hallador Energy Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an independent power producer and fuel company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Electric Operations and Coal Operations. The company owns and operates the Meron power plant, a 1,080 megawatts coal-fired power generating station that consists of two steam turbine generators and sells accredited capacity to utilities and other energy market participants. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$15.96
Market Cap$732M
Float36.2M
Shares Outstanding47.1M
P/E (Forward)60.61
P/E (TTM)776.50
Price/Sales (TTM)1.61
vs. Analyst Target+77.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-0.20%
Operating Margin (TTM)-12.46%
Revenue (TTM)$455M
Earnings Growth (YoY)1407.70%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$28.33 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $244M -$6.2M $58.3M $41.4M
2021 $248M -$3.8M $48.8M $44.8M
2022 $362M $18.1M $95.4M $75.0M
2023 $635M $44.8M $332M $127M
2024 $404M -$226M $226M -$158M
2025 $469M $41.9M $87.3M $103M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $147M $23.9M
Dec 2025 $102M -$240,000
Mar 2026 $100M -$9.3M
Jun 2026 $102M -$15.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership12.0%
Institutional Ownership77.6%
Short Float8.8%
% of All Funds Holding2.00%
Number of Funds Holding176

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$15.78Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$17.71Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$17.01Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$12.35Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$17.47Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$16.48Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$12.92Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$17.80 resistance 1.08x 0 months ago
$14.20 support 1.52x 14 months ago
$9.80 support 1.42x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (110 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.82% 0.00% 31.82% 22.22% -12.50%
1 Day 1.45% 0.00% 34.55% 27.27% -12.50%
1 Week 1.60% 0.00% 40.91% 50.00% -30.82%
2 Weeks 3.64% 0.00% 41.28% 166.00% -34.25%
1 Month 3.42% 0.00% 44.04% 166.67% -38.22%

Next earnings: October 29, 2026 (64 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan11.3%46.9%32
Feb-0.6%25.0%32
Mar5.6%37.5%32
Apr13.3%43.8%32
May10.8%48.5%33
Jun-4.7%30.3%33
Jul1.5%36.4%33
Aug2.4%34.4%32
Sep9.1%40.6%32
Oct-2.2%46.9%32
Nov-2.8%28.1%32
Dec0.0%34.4%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.08% 25.3% 1531
Tuesday 0.56% 29.1% 1673
Wednesday -0.02% 26.4% 1671
Thursday 0.34% 26.9% 1640
Friday 0.31% 27.1% 1633

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 77.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 12.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings11
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-399,062
% of Float-1.1%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
HARDIE DAVID C -$7.6M 3 3 sell
Wesley Charles Ray IV +$857,554.7 3 3 buy
Hudson Daniel Timothy +$338,832.5 3 3 buy
Sugg Barbara Ann +$85,648.5 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-15 Sugg Barbara Ann +$85,648.5 Transaction at $17.13, now -6.8%
2026-07-10 Hudson Daniel Timothy +$82,912.5 Transaction at $16.58, now -3.8%
2026-06-30 Hudson Daniel Timothy +$169,400 Transaction at $16.94, now -5.8%
2026-06-25 Hudson Daniel Timothy +$86,520 Transaction at $17.30, now -7.8%
2026-06-17 Wesley Charles Ray IV +$250,314 Transaction at $16.69, now -4.4%
2025-12-19 Wesley Charles Ray IV +$356,576 Transaction at $17.83, now -10.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for HNRG on Trend Edge →