NRG — NRG Energy Inc.

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About NRG Energy Inc.

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$140.43
Market Cap$28.89B
Float210.1M
Shares Outstanding211.0M
P/E (Forward)15.85
P/E (TTM)147.23
Price/Sales (TTM)0.89
vs. Analyst Target+42.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin0.74%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.64%
Revenue (TTM)$32.38B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-85.60%
Dividend Rate1.9%
Analyst Target Price$200.47 (17 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $9.09B $510M $2.55B $1.72B
2021 $26.99B $2.19B $6.51B $4.18B
2022 $31.54B $1.22B $4.10B $2.80B
2023 $28.82B -$202M $2.30B $1.75B
2024 $28.13B $1.13B $6.03B $3.50B
2025 $30.71B $864M $6.71B $3.81B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $6.74B -$104M
Sep 2025 $7.63B $152M
Dec 2025 $7.75B $66.0M
Mar 2026 $10.30B $125M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.5%
Institutional Ownership95.1%
Short Float2.2%
% of All Funds Holding12.07%
Number of Funds Holding992

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$148.94Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$158.30Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$139.65Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$87.21Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$158.18Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$138.05Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$96.21Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$154.00 resistance 1.02x 0 months ago
$175.00 resistance 1.40x 1 months ago
$112.00 support 1.32x 11 months ago
$92.00 support 1.07x 15 months ago
$73.00 support 1.21x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (89 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.03% 0.15% 58.43% 2.53% -10.00%
1 Day 0.23% -0.04% 46.07% 6.35% -7.25%
1 Week 0.86% 0.50% 56.18% 17.85% -19.58%
2 Weeks 0.82% 1.21% 56.18% 23.38% -19.77%
1 Month 1.64% 2.79% 62.50% 25.41% -28.60%

Next earnings: July 25, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.7%52.2%23
Feb-0.8%47.8%23
Mar2.8%65.2%23
Apr4.7%69.6%23
May5.1%54.5%22
Jun1.6%54.5%22
Jul1.8%59.1%22
Aug0.8%54.5%22
Sep-2.3%54.5%22
Oct0.1%54.5%22
Nov2.3%54.5%22
Dec1.1%59.1%22

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.08% 51.9% 1058
Tuesday -0.04% 50.4% 1161
Wednesday 0.10% 50.0% 1162
Thursday 0.01% 53.3% 1138
Friday 0.24% 52.9% 1134

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 95.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings10
Net Value-$49.3M
Net Shares Change-32,403,543
% of Float-15.4%
C-Suite Filings7
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Nanus David -$2.65B 1 1 sell
LS Power Equity Advisors, LLC -$2.65B 1 1 sell
Curci Brian Exec VP and General Counsel -$21.9M 1 N/A
Gaudette Robert J Exec VP, NRG Business -$12.1M 1 N/A
Chung Bruce EVP and CFO -$9.5M 2 N/A
Howell Kevin -$7.7M 1 1 sell
Kinney Virginia Exec VP, Chief Admin Officer -$4.1M 2 N/A
Liyanearachchi Dak Exec VP, Chief Technology Ofc. -$1.7M 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-01-06 – 2026-01-08 4 3 -$43.6M 4 C-suite
2026-03-04 – 2026-03-17 3 3 -$5.29B 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-04 Nanus David -$2.65B Transaction at $164.00, now -14.4%
2026-03-04 LS Power Equity Advisors, LLC -$2.65B Transaction at $164.00, now -14.4%
2025-06-03 Howell Kevin -$7.7M Transaction at $154.50, now -9.1%
2026-01-06 Curci Brian Exec VP and General Counsel -$21.9M Transaction at $112.97, now +24.3%
2026-01-06 Chung Bruce EVP and CFO -$7.5M Transaction at $112.41, now +24.9%
2026-01-08 Chung Bruce EVP and CFO -$1.9M Transaction at $156.56, now -10.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NRG on Trend Edge →