VRCA — Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates VRCA Bearish with a Setup Score of 22, net conviction 20, actionability 24. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score22
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction20
Actionability24 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc., a dermatology therapeutics company, engages in the development and commercialization of medications for the treatment of dermatologic diseases in the United States. The company offers YCANTH (VP-102) a drug-device combination that contains a GMP-controlled formulation of cantharidin for the treatment of molluscum in adult and pediatric patients, as well as for the treatment of common warts. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$4.94
Market Cap$83.5M
Float7.9M
Shares Outstanding17.2M
Price/Sales (TTM)2.75
vs. Analyst Target+199.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-102.84%
Operating Margin (TTM)-194.46%
Revenue (TTM)$30.3M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$14.80 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $12.0M -$45.5M -$229,000 -$39.4M
2021 $12.0M -$35.1M $11.5M -$30.3M
2022 $9.0M -$24.5M $8.3M -$21.6M
2023 $5.1M -$67.0M $4.4M -$62.2M
2024 $7.6M -$76.6M $4.8M -$65.9M
2025 $35.6M -$17.9M $32.1M -$9.4M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $14.3M -$274,000
Dec 2025 $5.1M -$8.1M
Mar 2026 $5.0M -$9.7M
Jun 2026 $5.9M -$13.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership49.0%
Institutional Ownership27.1%
Short Float3.6%
% of All Funds Holding0.50%
Number of Funds Holding44

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$5.49Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$6.33Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$5.85Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$30.00Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$6.36Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$5.75Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$26.32Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$3.70 support 2.02x 8 months ago
$13.10 resistance 1.28x 19 months ago
$66.00 resistance 2.34x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (34 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.96% 0.36% 52.94% 7.05% -34.97%
1 Day -2.47% -2.10% 32.35% 11.29% -44.20%
1 Week -2.63% -5.63% 38.24% 26.91% -35.66%
2 Weeks -2.52% -6.01% 35.29% 71.25% -37.76%
1 Month -2.30% -8.02% 45.45% 106.36% -65.46%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (60 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan6.5%37.5%8
Feb4.3%50.0%8
Mar-5.5%25.0%8
Apr1.1%50.0%8
May-13.5%25.0%8
Jun7.4%62.5%8
Jul-0.6%44.4%9
Aug-4.5%50.0%8
Sep-8.0%25.0%8
Oct-8.8%12.5%8
Nov22.8%50.0%8
Dec2.1%37.5%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.53% 51.3% 388
Tuesday -0.49% 42.2% 424
Wednesday 0.01% 48.3% 420
Thursday -0.22% 44.1% 413
Friday 0.27% 49.0% 412

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 27.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 49.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value+$678,430.329
Net Shares Change4,278,576
% of Float54.2%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Manning Paul B +$17.5M 1 2 buy
Rieger Jayson CEO and President +$525,864.418 2 2 buy
Zawitz David Chief Operating Officer +$72,305 2 2 buy
Rosenberg Noah L. CMO +$40,609.432 2 2 buy
Kirby John J. Interim CFO +$39,651.48 2 2 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-25 – 2025-11-25 5 5 +$18.0M 4 C-suite
2026-08-18 – 2026-08-18 4 4 +$210,889.859 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-18 Zawitz David Chief Operating Officer +$29,880 Transaction at $4.98, now -0.8%
2026-08-18 Rosenberg Noah L. CMO +$30,609.859 Transaction at $4.91, now +0.5%
2026-08-18 Rieger Jayson CEO and President +$125,750 Transaction at $5.03, now -1.8%
2026-08-18 Kirby John J. Interim CFO +$24,650 Transaction at $4.93, now +0.2%
2025-11-25 Manning Paul B +$17.5M Transaction at $4.24, now +16.4%
2025-11-25 Zawitz David Chief Operating Officer +$42,425 Transaction at $4.24, now +16.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for VRCA on Trend Edge →