MRNA — Moderna Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Moderna Inc

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zi… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$47.57
Market Cap$18.75B
Float370.1M
Shares Outstanding396.8M
P/E (Forward)23.04
Price/Sales (TTM)8.43
vs. Analyst Target-9.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-143.55%
Operating Margin (TTM)-131.10%
Revenue (TTM)$2.22B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-85.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$43.20 (27 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $274M -$747M $267M -$732M
2021 $17.74B $12.20B $15.12B $13.53B
2022 $18.88B $8.36B $13.46B $9.77B
2023 $6.85B -$4.71B $2.15B -$3.28B
2024 $3.20B -$3.56B $1.74B -$3.39B
2025 $1.94B -$2.82B $1.08B -$2.55B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $142M -$825M
Sep 2025 $1.02B -$200M
Dec 2025 $678M -$826M
Mar 2026 $389M -$1.34B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership7.3%
Institutional Ownership78.8%
Short Float15.8%
% of All Funds Holding8.24%
Number of Funds Holding677

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$49.74Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$37.98Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$35.16Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$85.83Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$37.45Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$36.22Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$73.03Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$29.90 support 1.28x 3 months ago
$25.10 support 1.01x 4 months ago
$54.00 resistance 2.07x 17 months ago
$67.00 resistance 1.13x 18 months ago
$77.00 resistance 1.36x 19 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (31 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.61% -0.24% 35.48% 2.64% -14.95%
1 Day -0.19% -0.61% 41.94% 17.02% -16.56%
1 Week 0.13% -2.96% 41.94% 47.19% -26.71%
2 Weeks 1.48% -6.02% 45.16% 33.87% -28.12%
1 Month 5.06% 0.33% 50.00% 100.62% -32.03%

Next earnings: July 20, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan11.2%62.5%8
Feb1.6%37.5%8
Mar1.9%50.0%8
Apr9.7%62.5%8
May6.2%57.1%7
Jun-2.5%42.9%7
Jul10.7%71.4%7
Aug-9.0%28.6%7
Sep-1.9%57.1%7
Oct-3.2%42.9%7
Nov20.6%71.4%7
Dec-3.3%42.9%7

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.41% 52.1% 351
Tuesday -0.20% 43.2% 387
Wednesday 0.21% 49.2% 384
Thursday -0.08% 48.1% 376
Friday 0.45% 48.9% 376

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 78.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 7.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value-$6.9M
Net Shares Change14,897
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Hoge Stephen President -$6.3M 2 N/A
AFEYAN NOUBAR -$699,800.475 2 2 sell
Klinger Shannon Thyme Chief Legal Officer -$546,289.358 1 N/A
Hussain Abbas -$287,598.06 3 N/A

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-22 AFEYAN NOUBAR -$256,492.47 Transaction at $33.00, now +44.2%
2026-05-04 Hussain Abbas -$264,951.66 Transaction at $46.63, now +2.0%
2025-12-15 AFEYAN NOUBAR -$443,308.005 Transaction at $20.19, now +135.6%
2026-03-03 Klinger Shannon Thyme Chief Legal Officer -$546,289.358 Transaction at $40.67, now +17.0%
2026-05-18 Hoge Stephen President -$1.6M Transaction at $33.77, now +40.8%
2026-02-25 Hoge Stephen President -$4.8M Transaction at $34.00, now +39.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Moderna Inc (MRNA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MRNA on Trend Edge →