UPB — Upstream Bio, Inc.

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Upstream Bio, Inc.

Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases focusing on severe respiratory disorders. It offers verekitug, which is in Phase 2 trials for the treatment of severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and in Phase I clinical trial for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$8.26
Market Cap$460M
Float35.0M
Shares Outstanding54.4M
Price/Sales (TTM)138.59
vs. Analyst Target+413.7% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)-4218.09%
Revenue (TTM)$3.3M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$42.43 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2022 $1.2M -$23.9M $1.2M -$23.9M
2023 $2.4M -$20.5M $2.4M -$40.1M
2024 $2.4M -$62.8M $2.4M -$77.7M
2025 $2.9M -$143M $2.9M -$160M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $937,000 -$40.0M
Sep 2025 $683,000 -$33.7M
Dec 2025 $668,000 -$42.5M
Mar 2026 $1.0M -$40.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership14.9%
Institutional Ownership90.1%
Short Float9.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.51%
Number of Funds Holding124

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$9.22Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$18.20Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$15.14Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$0.00Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$18.27Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$15.77Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$0.00Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$31.10 resistance 3.29x 2 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (7 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.77% 0.96% 85.71% 2.03% -0.73%
1 Day -3.71% -3.11% 14.29% 4.51% -12.87%
1 Week -8.60% -5.77% 28.57% 11.36% -45.00%
2 Weeks -14.60% -11.04% 50.00% 8.77% -47.72%
1 Month -1.20% -4.39% 50.00% 37.52% -33.90%

Next earnings: August 1, 2026 (65 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 90.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 14.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value-$46,570.77
Net Shares Change-5,013
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Sutherland Everett Rand Chief Executive Officer -$19,443.97 1 1 sell
Deykin Aaron Chief Medical Officer -$8,305.26 1 1 sell
GRAY MICHAEL CFO and COO -$7,915.08 1 1 sell
Houghton Adam Chief Business Officer -$6,493.71 1 1 sell
Ambrose Allison General Counsel -$4,412.75 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-03-17 – 2026-03-17 5 5 -$46,570.77 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-17 Sutherland Everett Rand Chief Executive Officer -$19,443.97 Transaction at $9.29, now -11.1%
2026-03-17 Houghton Adam Chief Business Officer -$6,493.71 Transaction at $9.29, now -11.1%
2026-03-17 GRAY MICHAEL CFO and COO -$7,915.08 Transaction at $9.29, now -11.1%
2026-03-17 Deykin Aaron Chief Medical Officer -$8,305.26 Transaction at $9.29, now -11.1%
2026-03-17 Ambrose Allison General Counsel -$4,412.75 Transaction at $9.29, now -11.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for UPB on Trend Edge →