ULCC — Frontier Group Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Frontier Group Holdings Inc

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., provides low-fare passenger airline services to leisure travelers in the United States and Latin America. The company sells its products through direct distribution channels, such as websites, mobile apps, and contact centers. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$5.79
Market Cap$1.06B
Float57.7M
Shares Outstanding229.8M
P/E (Forward)13.95
Price/Sales (TTM)0.28
vs. Analyst Target-15.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-9.62%
Operating Margin (TTM)-33.27%
Revenue (TTM)$3.80B
Earnings Growth (YoY)1.00%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$4.89 (12 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.25B -$225M -$390M -$327M
2021 $2.06B -$102M -$202M -$77.0M
2022 $3.33B -$37.0M $282M $10.0M
2023 $3.59B -$11.0M $302M $83.0M
2024 $3.77B $85.0M $1.94B $122M
2025 $3.72B -$137M $1.32B -$58.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $929M -$70.0M
Sep 2025 $886M -$77.0M
Dec 2025 $997M $53.0M
Mar 2026 $992M -$272M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership48.7%
Institutional Ownership55.1%
Short Float39.6%
% of All Funds Holding1.80%
Number of Funds Holding148

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$4.42Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$4.59Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$4.98Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$6.66Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$4.45Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$4.92Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$5.75Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$3.60 support 1.29x 0 months ago
$3.00 support 1.28x 11 months ago
$7.20 resistance 1.36x 13 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (21 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.15% 0.59% 61.90% 5.95% -7.34%
1 Day 0.95% 0.40% 52.38% 20.50% -19.81%
1 Week 3.12% 3.86% 52.38% 34.11% -17.72%
2 Weeks -0.18% -0.34% 47.62% 32.09% -21.43%
1 Month 3.17% -1.88% 45.00% 56.17% -38.44%

Next earnings: August 5, 2026 (68 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.01% 48.3% 240
Tuesday -0.08% 44.4% 268
Wednesday 0.05% 44.5% 265
Thursday -0.13% 42.2% 258
Friday 0.14% 45.6% 261

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 55.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 48.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings15
Net Value-$6.5M
Net Shares Change-1,212,539
% of Float-2.1%
C-Suite Filings14
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Biffle Barry CEO -$3.5M 1 2 sell
Diamond Howard EVP, Legal and Corporate Affairs -$526,696.806 2 2 sell
Stedke Trevor J. Sr. Vice President, Operations -$449,633.411 1 1 sell
Genise Robert J. -$165,522 1 1 sell
Schroeter Robert SVP, Chief Commercial Officer -$100,087.048 1 1 sell
Clerc Alexandre SVP, Customers -$92,044.885 3 3 sell
Wetzel Josh A VP and CAO -$64,133.1 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-28 – 2025-09-11 8 6 -$4.4M 7 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-21 Wetzel Josh A VP and CAO -$64,133.1 Transaction at $4.75, now +21.9%
2026-05-11 Stedke Trevor J. Sr. Vice President, Operations -$449,633.411 Transaction at $5.41, now +7.0%
2025-09-04 Biffle Barry CEO -$3.5M Transaction at $5.61, now +3.2%
2025-09-11 Clerc Alexandre SVP, Customers -$20,259.7 Transaction at $5.33, now +8.6%
2025-09-09 Diamond Howard EVP, Legal and Corporate Affairs -$194,705.5 Transaction at $5.50, now +5.3%
2025-09-04 Diamond Howard EVP, Legal and Corporate Affairs -$331,991.306 Transaction at $5.74, now +0.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ULCC on Trend Edge →