ULCC — Frontier Group Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ULCC Bearish with a Setup Score of 32, net conviction 31, actionability 34. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score32
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction31
Actionability34 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Frontier Group Holdings Inc

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., provides low-fare passenger airline services to leisure travelers in the United States and Latin America. The company sells its products through direct distribution channels, such as websites, mobile apps, and contact centers. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$5.97
Market Cap$1.33B
Float70.3M
Shares Outstanding230.2M
P/E (Forward)13.95
Price/Sales (TTM)0.32
vs. Analyst Target+13.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-9.29%
Operating Margin (TTM)-9.23%
Revenue (TTM)$4.15B
Earnings Growth (YoY)1.00%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$6.78 (12 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.25B -$225M -$390M -$327M
2021 $2.06B -$102M -$202M -$77.0M
2022 $3.33B -$37.0M $282M $10.0M
2023 $3.59B -$11.0M $302M $83.0M
2024 $3.77B $85.0M $187M $122M
2025 $3.72B -$137M $1.32B -$32.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $886M -$77.0M
Dec 2025 $997M $53.0M
Mar 2026 $992M -$272M
Jun 2026 $1.28B -$90.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership43.3%
Institutional Ownership59.6%
Short Float33.4%
% of All Funds Holding2.01%
Number of Funds Holding177

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$6.72Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$5.32Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$4.86Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$6.33Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$5.22Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$5.02Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$5.49Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$3.60 support 1.35x 2 months ago
$3.00 support 1.28x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (22 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.28% 0.61% 63.64% 5.95% -7.34%
1 Day 1.24% 0.72% 54.55% 20.50% -19.81%
1 Week 3.74% 4.52% 54.55% 34.11% -17.72%
2 Weeks 0.05% 1.97% 50.00% 32.09% -21.43%
1 Month 4.78% -1.45% 47.62% 56.17% -38.44%

Next earnings: October 17, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.01% 47.8% 253
Tuesday -0.06% 44.6% 280
Wednesday 0.01% 44.2% 278
Thursday -0.02% 42.8% 271
Friday 0.11% 45.6% 272

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 59.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 43.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings23
Net Value-$9.3M
Net Shares Change-13,254,281
% of Float-18.9%
C-Suite Filings21
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Group Holdings - Frontier LLC -$84.2M 1 1 sell
Biffle Barry CEO -$3.5M 1 2 sell
Stedke Trevor J. Sr. Vice President, Operations -$1.3M 1 1 sell
Mitchell Mark Christopher SVP & CFO -$1.0M 1 1 sell
Diamond Howard EVP, Legal & Corporate Affairs -$199,608.75 1 1 sell
Schuller Steve SVP, Human Resources -$135,548 2 2 sell
Clerc Alexandre SVP, Customers -$106,007.504 2 2 sell
Wetzel Josh A VP & CAO -$16,000 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-28 – 2025-09-11 8 6 -$4.4M 7 C-suite
2026-08-04 – 2026-08-06 6 6 -$2.7M 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-06 Mitchell Mark Christopher SVP & CFO -$1.0M Transaction at $8.09, now -26.2%
2026-08-06 Wetzel Josh A VP & CAO -$16,000 Transaction at $8.00, now -25.4%
2026-08-06 Diamond Howard EVP, Legal & Corporate Affairs -$199,608.75 Transaction at $8.25, now -27.6%
2026-08-04 Schuller Steve SVP, Human Resources -$75,537 Transaction at $7.55, now -21.0%
2026-08-04 Clerc Alexandre SVP, Customers -$76,001.198 Transaction at $7.44, now -19.8%
2026-08-06 Stedke Trevor J. Sr. Vice President, Operations -$1.3M Transaction at $8.03, now -25.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ULCC on Trend Edge →