AAL — American Airlines Group

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About American Airlines Group

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydne… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$14.65
Market Cap$8.99B
Float654.0M
Shares Outstanding661.4M
P/E (Forward)40.49
P/E (TTM)43.84
Price/Sales (TTM)0.16
vs. Analyst Target+2.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin0.36%
Operating Margin (TTM)-0.07%
Revenue (TTM)$55.99B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-83.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$14.94 (26 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $17.34B -$8.88B -$7.23B -$7.86B
2021 $29.88B -$1.99B $27.0M $1.59B
2022 $48.97B $127M $9.04B $4.13B
2023 $52.79B $822M $11.81B $5.20B
2024 $54.21B $846M $11.46B $5.01B
2025 $54.63B $111M $10.47B $3.88B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $14.39B $599M
Sep 2025 $13.69B -$114M
Dec 2025 $14.00B $99.0M
Mar 2026 $13.91B -$382M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.6%
Institutional Ownership68.0%
Short Float12.3%
% of All Funds Holding6.62%
Number of Funds Holding544

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$12.33Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$13.13Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$13.18Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$13.50Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$13.06Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$13.09Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$13.37Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$10.10 support 1.44x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (83 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.40% 0.17% 56.63% 6.05% -5.00%
1 Day 0.38% -0.26% 42.17% 28.17% -11.41%
1 Week 1.24% -0.69% 48.19% 101.79% -21.37%
2 Weeks 2.39% -0.97% 48.19% 125.89% -30.77%
1 Month 3.49% 0.24% 50.00% 301.34% -51.46%

Next earnings: July 23, 2026 (55 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.2%47.6%21
Feb-1.9%38.1%21
Mar-4.1%42.9%21
Apr0.5%38.1%21
May-1.6%55.0%20
Jun-2.9%35.0%20
Jul5.4%55.0%20
Aug0.8%35.0%20
Sep-0.8%50.0%20
Oct9.6%71.4%21
Nov3.7%66.7%21
Dec4.0%71.4%21

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.08% 48.6% 973
Tuesday 0.32% 50.3% 1067
Wednesday 0.11% 53.0% 1067
Thursday 0.03% 48.8% 1046
Friday -0.01% 46.3% 1043

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 68.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$1.3M
Net Shares Change-88,102
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Seymour David EVP Chief Operating Officer -$1.3M 2 N/A

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-11 Seymour David EVP Chief Operating Officer -$938,286.326 Transaction at $15.01, now -2.4%
2025-12-17 Seymour David EVP Chief Operating Officer -$409,699.165 Transaction at $16.01, now -8.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for American Airlines Group (AAL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AAL on Trend Edge →