AAL — American Airlines Group

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AAL Bullish with a Setup Score of 36, net conviction 21, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score36
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction21
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About American Airlines Group

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydne… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$13.84
Market Cap$9.30B
Float654.8M
Shares Outstanding662.0M
P/E (Forward)43.29
Price/Sales (TTM)0.15
vs. Analyst Target+36.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-0.56%
Operating Margin (TTM)2.81%
Revenue (TTM)$58.34B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-88.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$18.95 (26 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $17.34B -$8.88B -$7.23B -$7.86B
2021 $29.88B -$1.99B $27.0M $1.59B
2022 $48.97B $127M $9.04B $4.13B
2023 $52.79B $822M $11.81B $5.20B
2024 $54.21B $846M $11.46B $5.01B
2025 $54.63B $111M $10.47B $3.88B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $13.69B -$114M
Dec 2025 $14.00B $99.0M
Mar 2026 $13.91B -$382M
Jun 2026 $16.73B $71.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.5%
Institutional Ownership78.9%
Short Float9.8%
% of All Funds Holding6.48%
Number of Funds Holding570

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$15.59Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$14.03Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$12.96Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$13.62Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$14.00Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$13.18Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$13.44Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$18.20 resistance 1.72x 0 months ago
$10.10 support 1.44x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (84 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.43% 0.17% 57.14% 6.05% -5.00%
1 Day 0.45% -0.25% 42.86% 28.17% -11.41%
1 Week 1.37% -0.67% 48.81% 101.79% -21.37%
2 Weeks 2.57% -0.78% 48.81% 125.89% -30.77%
1 Month 3.77% 0.48% 50.60% 301.34% -51.46%

Next earnings: October 22, 2026 (56 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.2%47.6%21
Feb-1.9%38.1%21
Mar-4.1%42.9%21
Apr0.5%38.1%21
May-0.3%57.1%21
Jun-1.6%38.1%21
Jul4.4%52.4%21
Aug0.8%35.0%20
Sep-0.8%50.0%20
Oct9.6%71.4%21
Nov3.7%66.7%21
Dec4.0%71.4%21

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.09% 48.7% 986
Tuesday 0.32% 50.5% 1079
Wednesday 0.10% 52.8% 1080
Thursday 0.03% 48.7% 1059
Friday -0.01% 46.3% 1054

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 78.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value-$7.0M
Net Shares Change-443,146
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings7
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Seymour David EVP Chief Operating Officer -$3.5M 3 N/A
Johnson Stephen L Vice Chair -$2.3M 2 2 sell
Owens Angela SVP Corporate Controller -$1.2M 2 2 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-31 Owens Angela SVP Corporate Controller -$611,623.112 Transaction at $15.26, now -9.3%
2026-07-29 Owens Angela SVP Corporate Controller -$601,017.293 Transaction at $15.34, now -9.8%
2026-07-29 Johnson Stephen L Vice Chair -$1.3M Transaction at $14.95, now -7.4%
2026-08-03 Johnson Stephen L Vice Chair -$916,668 Transaction at $15.28, now -9.4%
2026-06-26 Seymour David EVP Chief Operating Officer -$2.2M Transaction at $17.45, now -20.7%
2025-12-11 Seymour David EVP Chief Operating Officer -$938,286.326 Transaction at $15.01, now -7.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for American Airlines Group (AAL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AAL on Trend Edge →