ALK — Alaska Air Group Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ALK Bearish with a Setup Score of 36, net conviction 38, actionability 34. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score36
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction38
Actionability34 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Alaska Air Group Inc

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo; and Horizon's and other third-party carriers scheduled air transportation services. It operates in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Belize, the Bahamas, the South P… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$49.42
Market Cap$5.59B
Float110.7M
Shares Outstanding111.4M
P/E (Forward)208.33
P/E (TTM)96.42
Price/Sales (TTM)0.39
vs. Analyst Target+32.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin0.51%
Operating Margin (TTM)-7.61%
Revenue (TTM)$14.40B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-68.30%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$65.34 (16 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $3.57B -$1.32B -$783M -$1.92B
2021 $6.18B $478M $817M $137M
2022 $9.65B $58.0M $2.13B $1.10B
2023 $10.43B $235M $2.46B $1.24B
2024 $11.73B $395M $2.86B $1.43B
2025 $14.24B $100M $8.49B $1.29B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $3.70B $172M
Sep 2025 $3.77B $73.0M
Dec 2025 $3.63B $21.0M
Mar 2026 $3.30B -$193M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.6%
Institutional Ownership95.0%
Short Float11.2%
% of All Funds Holding5.07%
Number of Funds Holding417

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$45.89Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$45.96Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$51.20Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$46.34Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$46.09Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$51.53Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$46.73Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$72.00 resistance 1.71x 15 months ago
$35.90 support 1.02x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (123 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.04% 0.16% 52.85% 10.54% -12.93%
1 Day 0.13% 0.62% 54.47% 20.58% -13.19%
1 Week 0.83% 1.30% 52.85% 24.43% -20.52%
2 Weeks 1.72% 1.24% 56.91% 34.47% -24.60%
1 Month 2.32% 2.34% 58.20% 48.49% -34.03%

Next earnings: July 22, 2026 (10 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.5%69.6%46
Feb1.2%54.3%46
Mar-1.0%54.3%46
Apr-0.6%44.7%47
May1.1%55.3%47
Jun0.1%48.9%47
Jul1.3%47.8%46
Aug0.3%45.7%46
Sep-2.8%39.1%46
Oct4.5%67.4%46
Nov6.3%69.6%46
Dec1.3%58.7%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.10% 44.1% 2206
Tuesday 0.11% 46.5% 2394
Wednesday 0.10% 46.4% 2392
Thursday 0.09% 45.6% 2346
Friday 0.15% 47.0% 2330

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 95.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value-$4.9M
Net Shares Change-53,679
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
TACKETT SHANE R EVP AND CFO -$2.2M 3 3 sell
HARRISON ANDREW R EVP AND CCO -$2.0M 3 3 sell
LEVINE KYLE B EVP Corp Pub Aff & Chf Leg Off -$637,388.58 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-06 – 2026-02-19 5 3 -$3.9M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-19 TACKETT SHANE R EVP AND CFO -$1.4M Transaction at $57.15, now -13.5%
2026-02-19 HARRISON ANDREW R EVP AND CCO -$311,487 Transaction at $56.63, now -12.7%
2026-02-11 LEVINE KYLE B EVP Corp Pub Aff & Chf Leg Off -$295,855.08 Transaction at $59.58, now -17.0%
2026-02-06 TACKETT SHANE R EVP AND CFO -$550,007 Transaction at $55.00, now -10.1%
2026-02-17 HARRISON ANDREW R EVP AND CCO -$1.3M Transaction at $55.04, now -10.2%
2025-08-19 LEVINE KYLE B SVP LEGAL & GEN COUNSEL -$341,533.5 Transaction at $57.75, now -14.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ALK on Trend Edge →