TLYS — Tillys Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TLYS Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 35, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction35
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About Tillys Inc

Tilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, boys, and girls in the United States. Its apparel merchandise comprising branded, fashion, and styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, swim and dresses; and accessories merchandise consist of backpacks, hydration bottles, hats, sunglasses, handbags, watches, jewelry, and others. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$4.12
Market Cap$127M
Float10.1M
Shares Outstanding23.2M
P/E (Forward)20.53
Price/Sales (TTM)0.22
vs. Analyst Target+33.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-0.57%
Operating Margin (TTM)-6.49%
Revenue (TTM)$571M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-97.40%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$5.50 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $531M -$1.1M $142M $16.0M
2022 $776M $64.2M $277M $104M
2023 $672M $9.7M $203M $25.3M
2024 $623M -$34.5M $166M -$18.1M
2025 $569M -$46.2M $150M -$37.1M
2026 $554M -$17.5M $164M -$8.8M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Aug 2025 $151M $3.2M
Nov 2025 $140M -$1.4M
Feb 2026 $155M $2.9M
May 2026 $125M -$8.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.0%
Institutional Ownership95.8%
Short Float6.7%
% of All Funds Holding0.72%
Number of Funds Holding59

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$4.42Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$2.80Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$2.54Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$5.23Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$2.87Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$2.67Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$4.75Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$1.50 support 6.01x 3 months ago
$1.40 support 1.25x 6 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (53 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.32% 0.56% 52.83% 59.51% -23.61%
1 Day 1.54% -1.67% 41.51% 47.24% -24.43%
1 Week 0.58% -6.15% 35.85% 125.15% -29.09%
2 Weeks -0.11% -4.05% 32.08% 157.67% -29.79%
1 Month 1.62% -2.54% 42.31% 214.11% -46.06%

Next earnings: September 2, 2026 (53 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.5%57.1%14
Feb-4.9%35.7%14
Mar2.5%21.4%14
Apr0.0%42.9%14
May-3.3%42.9%14
Jun-0.9%33.3%15
Jul3.3%50.0%14
Aug11.6%71.4%14
Sep-4.2%28.6%14
Oct-2.5%28.6%14
Nov1.9%57.1%14
Dec7.1%50.0%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.08% 46.5% 669
Tuesday -0.07% 46.6% 732
Wednesday -0.15% 44.0% 729
Thursday 0.38% 50.0% 716
Friday 0.09% 48.9% 714

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 95.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.0%

Founder-led management: Hezy Shaked (Executive Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value-$59,284.125
Net Shares Change-896,250
% of Float-8.9%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Shay Capital LLC -$2.4M 4 2 buy, 2 sell
Cingolani Michael Joseph Chief Merchandising Officer -$59,284.125 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-11 Cingolani Michael Joseph Chief Merchandising Officer -$59,284.125 Transaction at $5.27, now -21.8%
2026-03-16 Shay Capital LLC -$2.6M Transaction at $2.55, now +61.4%
2025-07-30 Shay Capital LLC +$195,490 Transaction at $1.95, now +110.8%
2025-08-12 Shay Capital LLC +$82,080 Transaction at $1.37, now +201.2%
2026-03-24 Shay Capital LLC -$74,074 Transaction at $3.70, now +11.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Tillys Inc (TLYS) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TLYS on Trend Edge →