AEO — American Eagle Outfitters Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AEO Bullish with a Setup Score of 26, net conviction 33, actionability 20. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score26
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction33
Actionability20 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About American Eagle Outfitters Inc

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a multi-brand specialty retailer in the United States and internationally. It provides jeans, apparel and accessories, and personal care products for women and men under the American Eagle brand; and intimates, apparel, activewear, and swim collections under the Aerie and OFFLINE by Aerie brands. The company also offers menswear products under the Todd Snyder New York brand; and fashion clothing and acc… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$16.73
Market Cap$2.74B
Float155.8M
Shares Outstanding167.6M
P/E (Forward)11.67
P/E (TTM)10.46
Price/Sales (TTM)0.51
vs. Analyst Target+17.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin4.96%
Operating Margin (TTM)2.36%
Revenue (TTM)$5.65B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-6.50%
Dividend Rate0.5%
Analyst Target Price$19.70 (11 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $3.76B -$209M $986M -$105M
2022 $5.01B $420M $1.83B $756M
2023 $4.99B $125M $1.54B $405M
2024 $5.26B $170M $1.81B $477M
2025 $5.33B $329M $1.88B $659M
2026 $5.50B $192M $1.81B $465M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jul 2025 $1.28B $77.6M
Oct 2025 $1.36B $91.3M
Jan 2026 $1.76B $87.9M
Apr 2026 $1.20B $23.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership8.9%
Institutional Ownership103.4%
Short Float11.7%
% of All Funds Holding3.92%
Number of Funds Holding345

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$16.94Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$19.85Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$16.47Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$17.23Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$19.57Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$16.26Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$17.71Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$12.90 support 1.90x 10 months ago
$10.70 support 1.97x 11 months ago
$9.60 support 1.78x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (99 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.70% -0.06% 45.45% 30.32% -18.25%
1 Day -0.21% -0.12% 47.47% 37.96% -14.26%
1 Week -0.69% -0.51% 41.41% 43.98% -21.78%
2 Weeks -0.60% -0.12% 47.47% 44.79% -26.00%
1 Month -0.88% -0.90% 47.96% 35.33% -30.12%

Next earnings: September 2, 2026 (6 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.2%50.0%32
Feb2.5%59.4%32
Mar3.4%62.5%32
Apr2.9%56.3%32
May-3.0%39.4%33
Jun0.8%48.5%33
Jul4.2%72.7%33
Aug4.3%56.3%32
Sep3.4%56.3%32
Oct0.1%46.9%32
Nov7.9%65.6%32
Dec-4.3%37.5%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.09% 50.5% 1531
Tuesday 0.13% 48.7% 1672
Wednesday 0.21% 51.8% 1670
Thursday 0.06% 49.4% 1638
Friday -0.02% 48.1% 1632

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 103.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 8.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings20
Net Value-$33.7M
Net Shares Change-1,305,909
% of Float-0.8%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L Exec Chairman & CEO -$26.8M 1 1 sell
Foyle Jennifer M. Global Brand President-aerie -$3.4M 2 2 sell
Mathias Michael A. EVP and CFO -$2.4M 1 1 sell
Keefer James H JR SVP, Controller & CAO -$378,528.974 2 2 sell
Spiegel Noel Joseph -$98,530.6 2 2 sell
MCMILLAN CARY D -$98,241.875 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-09 – 2025-09-22 7 7 -$3.0M 3 C-suite
2025-12-08 – 2025-12-11 4 4 -$5.4M 4 C-suite
2026-01-15 – 2026-01-23 3 3 -$26.9M 1 C-suite
2026-07-09 – 2026-07-21 3 3 -$196,613.23

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-09 Spiegel Noel Joseph -$48,527.76 Transaction at $16.78, now -0.3%
2026-07-09 MCMILLAN CARY D -$48,513.3 Transaction at $16.77, now -0.3%
2025-12-08 Mathias Michael A. EVP and CFO -$2.4M Transaction at $19.75, now -15.3%
2025-12-08 Foyle Jennifer M. Global Brand President-aerie -$2.4M Transaction at $20.28, now -17.5%
2025-12-11 Keefer James H JR SVP, Controller & CAO -$134,868.563 Transaction at $23.49, now -28.8%
2025-09-22 Keefer James H JR SVP, Controller & CAO -$243,660.411 Transaction at $19.75, now -15.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AEO on Trend Edge →