STRO — Sutro Biopharma

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates STRO Bullish with a Setup Score of 42, net conviction 33, actionability 54. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score42
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction33
Actionability54 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Sutro Biopharma

Sutro Biopharma, Inc. operates as an oncology company. The company develops site-specific and novel-format antibody drug conjugates (ADCs) that enables its proprietary integrated cell-free protein synthesis platform, XpressCF; and site-specific conjugation platform, XpressCF+. Its lead product candidate includes STRO-004, a tissue factor (TF) targeting ADC for the treatment of TF-expressing solid tumors, including non-small cell lung cancer, head… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$21.04
Market Cap$351M
Float10.8M
Shares Outstanding16.6M
P/E (Forward)10.03
Price/Sales (TTM)7.68
vs. Analyst Target+124.5% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)-301.73%
Revenue (TTM)$45.7M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$47.23 (10 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $42.7M -$32.1M -$34.2M -$23.8M
2021 $61.9M -$106M $52.1M -$97.6M
2022 $67.8M -$119M $59.5M -$105M
2023 $154M -$107M $147M -$67.9M
2024 $62.0M -$227M $54.8M -$180M
2025 $102M -$191M $95.2M -$146M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $9.7M -$56.9M
Dec 2025 $11.6M -$46.8M
Mar 2026 $14.5M -$38.5M
Jun 2026 $9.8M -$38.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.3%
Institutional Ownership98.6%
Short Float16.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.11%
Number of Funds Holding98

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$25.78Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$22.14Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$15.71Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$32.69Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$22.54Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$16.51Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$27.42Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$32.90 resistance 1.59x 0 months ago
$14.80 support 1.18x 5 months ago
$11.50 support 1.07x 6 months ago
$8.50 support 1.11x 7 months ago
$8.40 support 1.38x 9 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (32 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.00% 0.11% 53.13% 14.13% -20.00%
1 Day 1.35% 1.86% 65.63% 16.32% -35.20%
1 Week 1.94% 0.99% 53.13% 64.78% -38.40%
2 Weeks 1.24% -1.98% 45.16% 64.78% -40.80%
1 Month 5.94% 2.00% 51.61% 92.27% -53.60%

Next earnings: October 31, 2026 (67 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.1%62.5%8
Feb-3.4%37.5%8
Mar-1.4%62.5%8
Apr1.0%25.0%8
May-3.2%50.0%8
Jun-4.7%37.5%8
Jul2.7%50.0%8
Aug7.5%71.4%7
Sep-7.4%42.9%7
Oct7.3%62.5%8
Nov-2.8%37.5%8
Dec8.3%50.0%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.12% 50.7% 373
Tuesday -0.12% 43.9% 408
Wednesday 0.14% 45.9% 405
Thursday 0.14% 47.1% 397
Friday -0.04% 47.1% 397

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 98.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.3%

Founder-led management: James Swartz (Founder)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value+$49,608.747
Net Shares Change111,754
% of Float1.0%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
MATSUI CONNIE +$39,950 1 1 buy
Chow Gregory K. CFO +$15,997.5 1 1 buy
Gerber Hans-Peter CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER +$13,606.8 1 1 buy
Chung Jane Chief Executive Officer +$10,011.25 1 1 buy
Pauling David Chief Admin. Ofcr. & GC +$9,993.197 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-10-16 – 2025-10-16 5 5 +$89,558.747 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-10-16 Pauling David Chief Admin. Ofcr. & GC +$9,993.197 Transaction at $0.80, now +2532.6%
2025-10-16 Gerber Hans-Peter CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER +$13,606.8 Transaction at $0.80, now +2528.7%
2025-10-16 Chung Jane Chief Executive Officer +$10,011.25 Transaction at $0.80, now +2527.0%
2025-10-16 Chow Gregory K. CFO +$15,997.5 Transaction at $0.81, now +2497.5%
2025-10-16 MATSUI CONNIE +$39,950 Transaction at $0.80, now +2533.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Sutro Biopharma (STRO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for STRO on Trend Edge →