STEL — Stellar Bancorp, Inc.

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Stellar Bancorp, Inc.

Stellar Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company that provides a range of commercial banking products and services primarily to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individual customers. It provides deposit products that include checking accounts, commercial accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, and other time deposits, as well as convenient services, such as telephone, mobile, and online banking. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$37.32
Market Cap$1.90B
Float46.2M
Shares Outstanding50.9M
P/E (Forward)14.88
P/E (TTM)18.16
Price/Sales (TTM)4.53
vs. Analyst Target+1.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin24.99%
Operating Margin (TTM)39.81%
Revenue (TTM)$421M
Earnings Growth (YoY)15.20%
Dividend Rate0.6%
Analyst Target Price$38.00 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $250M $45.5M $183M $63.6M
2021 $262M $81.6M $239M $107M
2022 $343M $51.4M $259M $76.8M
2023 $615M $130M $452M $196M
2024 $625M $115M $434M $177M
2025 $596M $103M $413M $128M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $148M $26.4M
Sep 2025 $150M $25.7M
Dec 2025 $150M $26.1M
Mar 2026 $144M $27.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership10.0%
Institutional Ownership66.6%
Short Float1.8%
% of All Funds Holding2.53%
Number of Funds Holding208

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$37.13Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$33.79Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$31.03Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$27.94Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$33.95Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$31.03Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$27.65Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$30.90 support 1.49x 3 months ago
$29.10 support 1.20x 8 months ago
$24.90 support 1.34x 11 months ago
$23.10 support 1.42x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (35 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.17% 0.31% 57.14% 4.60% -4.99%
1 Day 0.14% -0.25% 45.71% 6.29% -4.70%
1 Week 0.37% 0.44% 60.00% 12.22% -11.67%
2 Weeks 1.03% 0.96% 57.14% 14.49% -13.10%
1 Month 1.61% 2.75% 61.76% 18.51% -18.96%

Next earnings: July 31, 2026 (64 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.3%55.6%9
Feb-0.0%66.7%9
Mar-4.1%44.4%9
Apr-3.5%33.3%9
May0.8%62.5%8
Jun0.9%62.5%8
Jul5.2%75.0%8
Aug-2.9%25.0%8
Sep-0.9%37.5%8
Oct3.9%75.0%8
Nov7.4%100.0%8
Dec0.8%55.6%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.12% 51.9% 401
Tuesday 0.02% 47.0% 443
Wednesday -0.05% 49.1% 438
Thursday -0.01% 48.3% 431
Friday 0.13% 50.5% 432

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 66.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 10.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$81,660
Net Shares Change-19,467
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Franklin Robert R Jr Chief Executive Officer -$52,200 1 1 sell
Retzloff Steven F. Executive Chairman -$29,460 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-10-03 Franklin Robert R Jr Chief Executive Officer -$52,200 Transaction at $30.00, now +24.4%
2025-10-03 Retzloff Steven F. Executive Chairman -$29,460 Transaction at $30.00, now +24.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for STEL on Trend Edge →