RARE — Ultragenyx

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Ultragenyx

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. Its biologic products include Crysvita (burosumab), an antibody targeting fibroblast growth factor 23 for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatem… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$23.39
Market Cap$2.34B
Float94.6M
Shares Outstanding98.5M
Price/Sales (TTM)3.49
vs. Analyst Target+119.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-90.90%
Operating Margin (TTM)-102.21%
Revenue (TTM)$670M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$51.42 (20 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $271M -$187M $265M -$140M
2021 $351M -$454M $335M -$410M
2022 $363M -$707M $335M -$640M
2023 $434M -$607M $389M -$516M
2024 $560M -$569M $484M -$469M
2025 $673M -$575M $564M -$500M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $166M -$115M
Sep 2025 $160M -$180M
Dec 2025 $207M -$129M
Mar 2026 $136M -$185M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership3.5%
Institutional Ownership104.2%
Short Float14.4%
% of All Funds Holding3.30%
Number of Funds Holding271

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$23.67Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$27.31Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$32.70Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$39.72Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$26.89Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$33.42Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$38.84Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$34.30 resistance 1.92x 4 months ago
$36.20 resistance 2.90x 9 months ago
$39.00 resistance 1.26x 11 months ago
$47.00 resistance 1.00x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (50 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.30% -0.28% 44.00% 6.91% -10.97%
1 Day -1.10% -1.09% 36.00% 14.31% -13.38%
1 Week 0.63% -0.87% 44.00% 39.10% -22.52%
2 Weeks 1.38% -0.44% 48.00% 37.94% -26.92%
1 Month 2.40% 1.62% 55.10% 36.90% -31.43%

Next earnings: July 24, 2026 (56 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.7%66.7%12
Feb6.5%53.8%13
Mar-6.0%38.5%13
Apr1.8%38.5%13
May2.9%41.7%12
Jun6.5%75.0%12
Jul0.0%41.7%12
Aug3.5%58.3%12
Sep-5.5%25.0%12
Oct-5.6%25.0%12
Nov3.7%50.0%12
Dec1.6%58.3%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.16% 49.1% 580
Tuesday 0.12% 50.9% 639
Wednesday 0.30% 52.6% 635
Thursday -0.19% 46.1% 622
Friday 0.16% 50.2% 620

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 104.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 3.5%

Founder-led management: Emil Kakkis (Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings21
Net Value-$3.3M
Net Shares Change-18,627
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings19
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
KAKKIS EMIL D President and CEO -$1.2M 1 1 sell
Parschauer Karah Herdman EVP and Chief Legal Officer -$393,789.71 2 2 sell
Horn Howard Chief Financial Officer -$250,252.42 1 1 sell
Harris Erik EVP and Chief Commercial Officer -$240,289.2 1 1 sell
Pinion John Richard EVP, Chief Quality Operations Officer -$228,661.2 1 1 sell
Crombez Eric EVP and Chief Medical Officer -$168,847.44 2 2 sell
Huizenga Theodore Alan SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$43,593.62 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-03-03 – 2026-03-10 8 7 -$2.5M 8 C-suite
2026-05-04 – 2026-05-18 3 3 -$269,381.74 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-10 Parschauer Karah Herdman EVP and Chief Legal Officer -$208,311.71 Transaction at $21.87, now +7.0%
2026-05-06 Crombez Eric EVP and Chief Medical Officer -$8,586.24 Transaction at $24.96, now -6.3%
2026-03-03 Crombez Eric EVP and Chief Medical Officer -$160,261.2 Transaction at $22.80, now +2.6%
2026-03-03 Parschauer Karah Herdman EVP and Chief Legal Officer -$185,478 Transaction at $22.80, now +2.6%
2026-03-03 Huizenga Theodore Alan SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$40,671.32 Transaction at $23.09, now +1.3%
2026-03-03 KAKKIS EMIL D President and CEO -$1.2M Transaction at $22.80, now +2.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Ultragenyx (RARE) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for RARE on Trend Edge →