OCUL — Ocular Therapeutix Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates OCUL Bullish with a Setup Score of 10, net conviction 26, actionability 4. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score10
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction26
Actionability4 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Ocular Therapeutix Inc

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapies for retinal diseases and other eye conditions using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology in the United States. The company markets DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$10.77
Market Cap$2.44B
Float184.8M
Shares Outstanding219.6M
Price/Sales (TTM)46.79
vs. Analyst Target+151.5% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)-609.34%
Revenue (TTM)$52.1M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$27.09 (12 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $17.4M -$156M $15.3M -$146M
2021 $43.5M -$6.6M $39.1M $2.5M
2022 $51.5M -$71.0M $47.0M -$61.9M
2023 $58.4M -$80.7M $53.2M -$66.4M
2024 $63.7M -$194M $58.1M -$176M
2025 $51.8M -$266M $45.2M -$250M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $14.5M -$69.4M
Dec 2025 $13.3M -$64.7M
Mar 2026 $10.8M -$88.6M
Jun 2026 $13.5M -$78.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.9%
Institutional Ownership95.5%
Short Float14.5%
% of All Funds Holding2.96%
Number of Funds Holding260

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$9.64Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$9.82Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.85Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$7.56Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$9.80Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.64Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$8.05Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$12.00 resistance 1.77x 6 months ago
$5.80 support 1.44x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (49 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.23% 0.00% 42.86% 7.52% -12.47%
1 Day -0.13% 0.00% 46.94% 32.42% -17.15%
1 Week 2.45% -0.85% 44.90% 60.67% -20.77%
2 Weeks 1.35% -1.49% 46.94% 91.67% -32.61%
1 Month 3.76% 2.80% 52.08% 63.35% -37.01%

Next earnings: October 22, 2026 (56 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.3%41.7%12
Feb20.5%66.7%12
Mar2.0%50.0%12
Apr-2.3%58.3%12
May0.0%50.0%12
Jun3.3%50.0%12
Jul-3.6%41.7%12
Aug6.4%58.3%12
Sep-9.1%16.7%12
Oct-7.7%33.3%12
Nov14.0%66.7%12
Dec6.3%41.7%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.06% 45.4% 570
Tuesday -0.12% 45.2% 626
Wednesday 0.42% 49.0% 623
Thursday 0.13% 49.5% 610
Friday 0.26% 48.5% 608

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 95.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings29
Net Value-$3.5M
Net Shares Change-296,374
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings28
Clusters Detected6

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Dugel Pravin Executive Chairman, President and CEO -$1.1M 1 N/A
LINDSTROM RICHARD L MD +$461,354.14 1 1 buy
Saroj Namrata Chief Business Officer -$277,790.1 1 N/A
Notman Donald Chief Operating Officer -$204,869.941 2 N/A
Waheed Nadia Chief Medical Officer -$193,709.08 2 N/A
Anderman Todd Chief Legal Officer -$137,368.88 1 N/A
Kaiser Peter Chief Development Officer -$106,472.59 1 N/A
Nayak Sanjay Chief Strategy Officer -$93,545.92 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-27 – 2025-09-04 5 5 -$367,864.5 5 C-suite
2025-10-06 – 2025-10-10 3 3 -$359,783.55 3 C-suite
2025-11-26 – 2025-11-26 4 4 -$335,663.22 4 C-suite
2026-02-04 – 2026-02-17 5 4 -$1.5M 5 C-suite
2026-02-24 – 2026-02-25 6 6 +$204,979.78 5 C-suite
2026-05-28 – 2026-06-05 5 5 -$360,419.36 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-24 LINDSTROM RICHARD L MD +$461,354.14 Transaction at $7.66, now +40.6%
2025-11-07 Saroj Namrata Chief Business Officer -$277,790.1 Transaction at $10.74, now +0.3%
2025-10-10 Anderman Todd Chief Legal Officer -$137,368.88 Transaction at $12.34, now -12.7%
2026-06-05 Waheed Nadia Chief Medical Officer -$122,627.56 Transaction at $8.27, now +30.2%
2026-02-17 Dugel Pravin Executive Chairman, President and CEO -$1.1M Transaction at $9.04, now +19.1%
2026-02-17 Waheed Nadia Chief Medical Officer -$71,081.52 Transaction at $9.04, now +19.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for OCUL on Trend Edge →