OBK — Origin Bancorp, Inc.

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Origin Bancorp, Inc.

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. It provides noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residenti… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$47.32
Market Cap$1.47B
Float28.9M
Shares Outstanding30.9M
P/E (TTM)18.45
Price/Sales (TTM)4.20
vs. Analyst Target+9.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin22.97%
Operating Margin (TTM)38.45%
Revenue (TTM)$350M
Earnings Growth (YoY)25.40%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$52.00 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $287M $36.4M $190M $51.2M
2021 $290M $109M $276M $139M
2022 $378M $87.7M $302M $120M
2023 $577M $83.8M $336M $124M
2024 $617M $76.5M $345M $114M
2025 $599M $75.2M $349M $113M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $137M $14.6M
Sep 2025 $161M $8.6M
Dec 2025 $151M $29.5M
Mar 2026 $148M $27.7M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership5.1%
Institutional Ownership68.5%
Short Float1.9%
% of All Funds Holding2.08%
Number of Funds Holding171

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$45.36Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$39.99Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$37.61Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$35.18Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$40.21Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$37.54Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$34.54Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$42.00 support 1.23x 0 months ago
$37.60 support 1.45x 3 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (33 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.26% 0.03% 51.52% 2.69% -4.47%
1 Day 0.55% 0.49% 57.58% 6.40% -5.30%
1 Week 2.29% 1.28% 63.64% 17.28% -13.73%
2 Weeks 2.50% 4.13% 63.64% 14.62% -16.07%
1 Month 2.59% 2.40% 59.38% 19.34% -12.30%

Next earnings: July 29, 2026 (62 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.8%50.0%8
Feb0.8%62.5%8
Mar-5.6%25.0%8
Apr-0.4%50.0%8
May0.3%57.1%7
Jun1.8%62.5%8
Jul5.2%75.0%8
Aug-1.8%25.0%8
Sep-4.4%25.0%8
Oct2.7%75.0%8
Nov4.0%75.0%8
Dec1.1%62.5%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.12% 50.7% 379
Tuesday -0.14% 45.3% 417
Wednesday 0.10% 46.5% 413
Thursday 0.03% 51.2% 406
Friday 0.10% 50.1% 407

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 68.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 5.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings12
Net Value+$677,313.26
Net Shares Change29,744
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Jones Cecil W. +$297,807.351 2 2 buy
Moore Preston Chief Credit and Banking Officer +$257,005 2 2 buy, 1 sell
Wallace Willliam J IV Chief Financial Officer +$156,937.5 1 1 buy
Crotwell Jim Chief Risk Officer +$102,960 1 1 buy
Hall Martin Lance OBK COO, Origin Bank PresandCEO +$51,750 1 1 buy
Mills Drake Chairman, President and CEO +$40,872 1 2 buy
Brolly Stephen H Chief Accounting Officer +$34,691.4 1 1 buy
McGee Derek Chief Legal Counsel +$33,097.36 1 2 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-10-29 – 2025-11-04 10 10 +$1.0M 7 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-10-29 Moore Preston Chief Credit and Banking Officer +$257,005 Transaction at $34.26, now +38.1%
2025-10-29 McGee Derek Chief Legal Counsel +$33,097.36 Transaction at $34.13, now +38.6%
2025-10-29 Mills Drake Chairman, President and CEO +$40,872 Transaction at $34.05, now +39.0%
2025-10-29 Wallace Willliam J IV Chief Financial Officer +$156,937.5 Transaction at $34.88, now +35.7%
2026-02-24 Jones Cecil W. +$2,772.351 Transaction at $36.48, now +29.7%
2025-10-29 Crotwell Jim Chief Risk Officer +$102,960 Transaction at $34.32, now +37.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for OBK on Trend Edge →