NXTC — NextCure  Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates NXTC Bearish with a Setup Score of 50, net conviction 27, actionability 94. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score50
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction27
Actionability94 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About NextCure  Inc

NextCure, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in advancing medicines to treat cancer. The company's product candidate is the LNCB74, a B7-H4 targeted ADC to kill tumors. It also develops NC410, a fusion protein of LAIR-2, that is designed to block immune suppression mediated by LAIR-1; NC525, a novel LAIR-1 antibody that targets acute myeloid leukemia, blast cells, and leukemic stem cells; NC181 a humanized antibody targetin… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$5.83
Market Cap$28.6M
Float2.9M
Shares Outstanding4.6M
Price/Sales (TTM)9.52
vs. Analyst Target+285.9% to analyst PT
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$22.50 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $22.4M -$33.2M $22.4M -$37.8M
2021 N/A -$69.4M -$4.3M -$65.1M
2022 N/A -$69.4M -$4.5M -$71.8M
2023 N/A -$62.7M -$3.7M -$59.0M
2024 N/A -$55.7M -$2.9M -$54.3M
2025 N/A -$55.8M -$2.2M -$53.7M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 N/A -$8.6M
Dec 2025 N/A -$9.4M
Mar 2026 N/A -$9.8M
Jun 2026 N/A -$14.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership8.6%
Institutional Ownership37.0%
Short Float4.8%
% of All Funds Holding0.34%
Number of Funds Holding30

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$4.60Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$8.97Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$7.77Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$13.51Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$8.95Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$7.99Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$12.57Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$1.70 support 9.15x 0 months ago
$6.90 resistance 3.10x 1 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (30 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.20% 0.00% 43.33% 7.38% -5.72%
1 Day -0.19% -0.34% 43.33% 13.10% -21.12%
1 Week 0.86% -0.73% 40.00% 46.87% -29.48%
2 Weeks -1.55% -1.45% 46.67% 28.59% -40.64%
1 Month -5.54% -2.71% 41.38% 52.85% -78.09%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-2.7%57.1%7
Feb4.6%28.6%7
Mar-7.7%14.3%7
Apr-14.3%14.3%7
May-0.9%42.9%7
Jun-12.6%50.0%8
Jul14.0%37.5%8
Aug5.9%57.1%7
Sep-8.5%14.3%7
Oct13.6%42.9%7
Nov6.2%57.1%7
Dec-2.2%42.9%7

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.65% 46.5% 344
Tuesday 1.07% 47.5% 379
Wednesday -0.22% 45.1% 375
Thursday 0.38% 46.6% 367
Friday -0.27% 42.0% 367

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 37.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 8.6%

Founder-led management: Michael Richman (President & CEO)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change316,761
% of Float10.8%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC +$1.7M 2 2 buy
Simcere Zaiming, Inc. -$184,800 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-03 ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC +$1.6M Transaction at $4.93, now +18.2%
2026-07-29 ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC +$87,712.491 Transaction at $4.98, now +17.0%
2026-08-12 Simcere Zaiming, Inc. -$184,800 Transaction at $6.16, now -5.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for NextCure  Inc (NXTC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NXTC on Trend Edge →