NUVL — Nuvalent Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates NUVL Bullish with a Setup Score of 34, net conviction 52, actionability 22. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score34
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction52
Actionability22 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Nuvalent Inc

Nuvalent, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of therapies for patients with cancer. Its lead product candidates are Zidesamtinib (NVL-520), a novel ROS1-selective inhibitor to address the clinical challenges of emergent treatment resistance, central nervous system (CNS)-related adverse events, and brain metastases that may limit the use of ROS1 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) for patients with ROS proto… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$123.90
Market Cap$9.80B
Float49.0M
Shares Outstanding73.7M
vs. Analyst Target+1.0% to analyst PT
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$125.13 (11 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 N/A -$14.6M N/A -$14.6M
2021 N/A -$46.3M N/A -$46.1M
2022 N/A -$73.3M N/A -$77.6M
2023 N/A -$126M N/A -$126M
2024 N/A -$261M N/A $20.4M
2025 N/A -$425M N/A -$10.5M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 N/A -$99.7M
Sep 2025 N/A -$122M
Dec 2025 N/A -$119M
Mar 2026 N/A -$109M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.8%
Institutional Ownership113.3%
Short Float6.4%
% of All Funds Holding2.91%
Number of Funds Holding239

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$112.89Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$104.10Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$90.62Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$71.02Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$107.46Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$92.68Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$80.08Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$111.00 support 5.11x 0 months ago
$99.00 support 1.24x 7 months ago
$87.00 support 1.17x 8 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (20 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.57% 0.05% 50.00% 7.23% -2.12%
1 Day -0.77% -0.54% 45.00% 3.86% -8.56%
1 Week -1.90% -0.98% 40.00% 6.27% -19.25%
2 Weeks -1.03% 0.46% 55.00% 21.47% -31.03%
1 Month 4.34% 8.42% 73.68% 28.26% -52.35%

Next earnings: August 6, 2026 (25 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.05% 47.2% 231
Tuesday 0.42% 51.6% 256
Wednesday 0.53% 53.1% 254
Thursday 0.12% 47.4% 247
Friday 0.16% 47.4% 249

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 113.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings62
Net Value-$66.9M
Net Shares Change-780,944
% of Float-1.6%
C-Suite Filings59
Clusters Detected10

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Flynn James E -$70.9M 1 1 sell
Balcom Alexandra Chief Financial Officer -$4.0M 3 N/A
Pelish Henry E. Chief Scientific Officer -$3.7M 3 N/A
Turner Christopher Durant Chief Medical Officer -$721,320.309 1 N/A
Noci Darlene Chief Development Officer -$721,320.309 1 N/A
Miller Deborah Ann Chief Legal Officer -$676,157.777 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-07-11 – 2025-07-17 3 3 -$3.5M 3 C-suite
2025-10-01 – 2025-10-15 5 3 -$7.3M 5 C-suite
2025-10-17 – 2025-10-31 8 6 -$14.0M 7 C-suite
2025-11-19 – 2025-12-02 5 5 -$75.4M 3 C-suite
2026-01-02 – 2026-01-07 8 6 -$7.1M 8 C-suite
2026-03-02 – 2026-03-16 4 4 -$6.0M 4 C-suite
2026-03-26 – 2026-04-08 5 4 -$6.9M 5 C-suite
2026-05-01 – 2026-05-06 4 4 -$4.5M 4 C-suite
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-11 5 4 -$6.4M 5 C-suite
2026-07-01 – 2026-07-10 5 4 -$6.9M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-24 Flynn James E -$70.9M Transaction at $95.44, now +29.8%
2026-03-26 Balcom Alexandra Chief Financial Officer -$2.5M Transaction at $49.62, now +149.7%
2026-03-16 Pelish Henry E. Chief Scientific Officer -$2.9M Transaction at $64.80, now +91.2%
2026-07-10 Pelish Henry E. Chief Scientific Officer -$261,362.91 Transaction at $123.81, now +0.1%
2026-01-07 Turner Christopher Durant Chief Medical Officer -$721,320.309 Transaction at $97.25, now +27.4%
2026-01-07 Pelish Henry E. Chief Scientific Officer -$501,752.724 Transaction at $97.24, now +27.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Nuvalent Inc (NUVL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NUVL on Trend Edge →