NGVC — Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; private label repackaged bulk products, including dried fruits, nuts, grains, granolas, teas, herbs, and spices, as well as peanut and almond butters; private label products comprising grocery staples,… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$29.79
Market Cap$669M
Float10.6M
Shares Outstanding23.0M
P/E (Forward)13.77
P/E (TTM)13.96
Price/Sales (TTM)0.50
vs. Analyst Target+55.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.60%
Operating Margin (TTM)5.37%
Revenue (TTM)$1.34B
Earnings Growth (YoY)3.60%
Dividend Rate0.6%
Analyst Target Price$46.33 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.04B $20.0M $283M $59.7M
2021 $1.06B $20.6M $292M $58.8M
2022 $1.09B $21.4M $305M $58.8M
2023 $1.14B $23.2M $327M $62.1M
2024 $1.24B $33.9M $365M $77.9M
2025 $1.33B $46.4M $398M $93.8M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $329M $11.6M
Sep 2025 $336M $11.8M
Dec 2025 $336M $11.3M
Mar 2026 $337M $13.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership43.8%
Institutional Ownership38.7%
Short Float5.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.69%
Number of Funds Holding139

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$27.71Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$29.71Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$36.40Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$24.03Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$30.23Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$36.04Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$26.30Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$32.10 resistance 1.19x 5 months ago
$39.70 resistance 1.12x 6 months ago
$48.00 resistance 1.94x 10 months ago
$21.40 support 1.28x 21 months ago
$16.50 support 1.39x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (56 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.24% 1.73% 60.71% 18.31% -23.59%
1 Day 3.53% 2.46% 57.14% 42.56% -36.58%
1 Week 3.85% 1.58% 55.36% 52.75% -33.81%
2 Weeks 2.28% 2.36% 53.57% 55.65% -36.47%
1 Month 1.83% 2.46% 54.55% 67.25% -42.82%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.6%57.1%14
Feb-0.3%57.1%14
Mar3.9%64.3%14
Apr0.4%50.0%14
May0.2%38.5%13
Jun-0.7%46.2%13
Jul6.0%84.6%13
Aug-3.0%50.0%14
Sep-4.2%42.9%14
Oct-0.7%57.1%14
Nov12.2%57.1%14
Dec1.6%50.0%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 48.8% 652
Tuesday -0.01% 47.7% 715
Wednesday 0.06% 49.3% 712
Thursday -0.01% 50.1% 699
Friday 0.35% 48.5% 699

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 38.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 43.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-4,500
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Isely Lark -$189,020 3 3 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-08-21 Isely Lark -$80,000 Transaction at $40.00, now -25.5%
2025-06-13 Isely Lark -$88,520 Transaction at $44.26, now -32.7%
2025-08-27 Isely Lark -$20,500 Transaction at $41.00, now -27.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NGVC on Trend Edge →