CMG — Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates CMG Bearish with a Setup Score of 49, net conviction 36, actionability 68. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score49
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction36
Actionability68 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The company sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids' meals, chips, and sides. It also offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork under the Responsibly Raised brand. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$35.25
Market Cap$44.38B
Float1.27B
Shares Outstanding1.28B
P/E (Forward)29.07
P/E (TTM)31.74
Price/Sales (TTM)3.66
vs. Analyst Target+22.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin11.96%
Operating Margin (TTM)13.27%
Revenue (TTM)$12.14B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-17.90%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$43.03 (37 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $5.98B $356M $1.04B $575M
2021 $7.55B $653M $1.71B $1.10B
2022 $8.63B $899M $2.06B $1.50B
2023 $9.87B $1.23B $2.59B $1.95B
2024 $11.31B $1.53B $3.02B $2.32B
2025 $11.93B $1.54B $3.03B $2.37B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $3.06B $436M
Sep 2025 $3.00B $382M
Dec 2025 $2.98B $331M
Mar 2026 $3.09B $303M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.7%
Institutional Ownership92.7%
Short Float3.9%
% of All Funds Holding14.20%
Number of Funds Holding1,167

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$32.79Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$35.16Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$42.55Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$44.22Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$34.64Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$42.51Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$46.32Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$31.70 support 1.38x 7 months ago
$39.20 resistance 1.49x 8 months ago
$56.00 resistance 1.67x 11 months ago
$62.00 resistance 1.61x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (82 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.32% -0.23% 46.34% 14.38% -21.35%
1 Day 0.58% -0.94% 43.90% 24.44% -21.51%
1 Week 1.39% 0.77% 51.22% 23.76% -26.69%
2 Weeks 1.23% 0.14% 51.22% 28.62% -26.30%
1 Month 1.21% 0.08% 50.62% 36.07% -26.47%

Next earnings: July 29, 2026 (17 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.9%75.0%20
Feb1.1%52.4%21
Mar4.5%71.4%21
Apr5.2%57.1%21
May2.7%47.6%21
Jun0.9%61.9%21
Jul1.6%65.0%20
Aug0.9%50.0%20
Sep0.3%45.0%20
Oct-1.0%35.0%20
Nov4.0%65.0%20
Dec1.0%60.0%20

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.01% 48.9% 965
Tuesday 0.15% 50.5% 1055
Wednesday 0.20% 53.3% 1055
Thursday 0.09% 53.1% 1035
Friday 0.06% 51.5% 1030

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 92.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value-$9.5M
Net Shares Change-60,137
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Garner Curtis E Pres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off -$7.1M 3 3 sell
Eskenazi Ilene Chief Human Resources Officer -$2.4M 1 1 sell
FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIA -$122,543 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-10 Garner Curtis E Pres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off -$2.5M Transaction at $30.58, now +15.3%
2025-08-26 Eskenazi Ilene Chief Human Resources Officer -$2.4M Transaction at $43.03, now -18.1%
2026-02-25 FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIA -$122,543 Transaction at $36.58, now -3.6%
2025-12-12 Garner Curtis E Pres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off -$2.4M Transaction at $27.91, now +26.3%
2025-12-02 Garner Curtis E Pres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off -$2.1M Transaction at $27.05, now +30.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for CMG on Trend Edge →