LOCO — El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. The company operates and franchises restaurants located in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah, and Louisiana. It also licenses its brand to restaurants in the Philippines. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$13.95
Market Cap$431M
Float25.1M
Shares Outstanding30.5M
P/E (Forward)14.03
P/E (TTM)14.43
Price/Sales (TTM)0.87
vs. Analyst Target+28.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin5.87%
Operating Margin (TTM)9.78%
Revenue (TTM)$497M
Earnings Growth (YoY)43.30%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$17.88 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $426M $24.5M $93.7M $50.3M
2021 $454M $29.1M $99.3M $56.5M
2022 $470M $20.8M $83.7M $45.0M
2023 $469M $25.6M $93.4M $55.1M
2024 $473M $25.7M $104M $56.9M
2025 $490M $26.5M $140M $58.4M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $126M $7.1M
Sep 2025 $122M $7.4M
Dec 2025 $124M $6.5M
Mar 2026 $126M $8.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.6%
Institutional Ownership93.3%
Short Float5.4%
% of All Funds Holding1.57%
Number of Funds Holding129

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$13.79Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$11.46Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$11.15Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$10.59Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$11.44Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$11.28Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$10.68Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$11.10 support 1.67x 1 months ago
$9.40 support 1.27x 11 months ago
$8.60 support 1.72x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (48 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.85% 0.31% 56.25% 26.40% -14.11%
1 Day 1.88% 0.84% 58.33% 29.09% -19.77%
1 Week 1.27% -0.49% 43.75% 30.06% -22.47%
2 Weeks 0.75% 0.94% 54.17% 28.26% -33.56%
1 Month 2.40% 0.06% 51.06% 44.35% -38.15%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (57 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan5.1%66.7%12
Feb-2.2%25.0%12
Mar-5.7%33.3%12
Apr2.0%41.7%12
May0.6%45.5%11
Jun4.0%72.7%11
Jul3.3%54.5%11
Aug-5.1%41.7%12
Sep-2.3%33.3%12
Oct-1.9%33.3%12
Nov4.6%66.7%12
Dec-2.3%33.3%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 47.0% 557
Tuesday -0.02% 47.6% 614
Wednesday 0.06% 48.5% 610
Thursday 0.01% 46.1% 597
Friday 0.07% 47.7% 597

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 93.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-11,363
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Buller Mark -$124,993 1 N/A

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-06-10 Buller Mark -$124,993 Transaction at $11.00, now +26.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for LOCO on Trend Edge →