KPTI — Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates KPTI Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 53, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction53
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes drugs directed against nuclear export for the treatment of cancer and other diseases in the United States. The company discovers, develops, and commercializes novel and small molecule Selective Inhibitor of Nuclear Export (SINE) compounds that inhibit the nuclear export protein exportin 1 (XPO1). Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$1.92
Market Cap$41.3M
Float17.1M
Shares Outstanding22.7M
Price/Sales (TTM)0.28
vs. Analyst Target+277.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-153.28%
Operating Margin (TTM)-67.38%
Revenue (TTM)$147M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$7.25 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $108M -$196M $105M -$168M
2021 $210M -$124M $206M -$97.0M
2022 $157M -$165M $152M -$139M
2023 $146M -$143M $141M -$118M
2024 $145M -$76.4M $139M -$38.6M
2025 $146M -$196M $140M -$150M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $44.0M -$33.1M
Dec 2025 $34.1M -$102M
Mar 2026 $35.1M -$22.4M
Jun 2026 $33.4M -$67.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.7%
Institutional Ownership93.7%
Short Float44.3%
% of All Funds Holding1.10%
Number of Funds Holding97

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$5.70Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$7.24Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$6.38Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$17.93Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$6.55Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$6.25Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$11.51Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$9.60 resistance 2.67x 0 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (52 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.03% -0.09% 46.15% 11.23% -8.01%
1 Day 0.26% 0.40% 53.85% 16.95% -20.00%
1 Week 1.29% -0.66% 44.23% 64.99% -22.88%
2 Weeks 5.51% 2.37% 52.94% 97.88% -27.15%
1 Month 4.69% 1.24% 52.94% 71.09% -29.05%

Next earnings: November 1, 2026 (66 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.6%30.8%13
Feb5.4%61.5%13
Mar2.1%53.8%13
Apr1.0%30.8%13
May-3.3%38.5%13
Jun1.7%61.5%13
Jul-8.7%38.5%13
Aug5.1%50.0%12
Sep-1.6%50.0%12
Oct-4.1%41.7%12
Nov12.6%66.7%12
Dec-3.1%38.5%13

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.08% 48.7% 604
Tuesday -0.22% 45.6% 663
Wednesday 0.17% 49.5% 658
Thursday 0.04% 47.0% 647
Friday 0.02% 48.8% 644

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 93.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings26
Net Value-$368,657.814
Net Shares Change-25,994
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings26
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Paulson Richard A. President and CEO -$137,239.33 2 N/A
Poulton Stuart EVP, Chief Development Officer -$53,168.26 3 N/A
Rangwala Reshma EVP & Chief Medical Officer -$51,544.527 2 N/A
Cheng Sohanya Roshan EVP & Chief Commercial Officer -$43,321.338 1 N/A
Mano Michael EVP, CLO&Secretary -$35,704.897 2 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-04 – 2025-09-16 7 6 -$17,108 7 C-suite
2026-02-19 – 2026-03-03 7 6 -$296,998.501 7 C-suite
2026-05-15 – 2026-05-15 6 6 -$34,741.5 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-03 Rangwala Reshma EVP & Chief Medical Officer -$47,668.527 Transaction at $9.41, now -79.6%
2026-03-03 Poulton Stuart EVP, Chief Development Officer -$47,997.86 Transaction at $9.41, now -79.6%
2026-03-03 Paulson Richard A. President and CEO -$116,310.829 Transaction at $9.41, now -79.6%
2026-03-03 Mano Michael EVP, CLO&Secretary -$33,177.897 Transaction at $9.41, now -79.6%
2026-03-03 Cheng Sohanya Roshan EVP & Chief Commercial Officer -$43,321.338 Transaction at $9.41, now -79.6%
2026-07-30 Poulton Stuart EVP, Chief Development Officer -$1,341.9 Transaction at $7.10, now -73.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc (KPTI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for KPTI on Trend Edge →