EXEL — Exelixis Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates EXEL Bullish with a Setup Score of 42, net conviction 44, actionability 41. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score42
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction44
Actionability41 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Exelixis Inc

Exelixis, Inc., an oncology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of new medicines for difficult-to-treat cancers in the United States. The company offers CABOMETYX tablets for the treatment of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma who received prior anti-angiogenic therapy; and COMETRIQ capsules for the treatment of progressive and metastatic medullary thyroid cancer. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$56.10
Market Cap$13.30B
Float214.1M
Shares Outstanding247.8M
P/E (Forward)17.15
P/E (TTM)16.88
Price/Sales (TTM)5.46
vs. Analyst Target-5.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin35.33%
Operating Margin (TTM)39.51%
Revenue (TTM)$2.44B
Earnings Growth (YoY)26.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$53.00 (20 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $988M $112M $951M $119M
2021 $1.43B $231M $1.38B $300M
2022 $1.61B $182M $1.55B $222M
2023 $1.83B $208M $1.76B $283M
2024 $2.17B $521M $2.09B $719M
2025 $2.32B $783M $2.24B $922M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $598M $194M
Dec 2025 $599M $245M
Mar 2026 $611M $210M
Jun 2026 $629M $212M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.8%
Institutional Ownership107.2%
Short Float13.4%
% of All Funds Holding8.53%
Number of Funds Holding750

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$54.69Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$47.59Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$43.66Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$31.21Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$47.48Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$43.17Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$33.64Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$44.00 support 1.05x 2 months ago
$32.80 support 1.12x 17 months ago
$26.00 support 1.22x 21 months ago
$23.60 support 1.13x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (105 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.65% 0.00% 49.52% 19.13% -13.81%
1 Day 0.05% 0.00% 47.62% 20.84% -26.37%
1 Week 0.73% -0.78% 42.86% 60.78% -45.45%
2 Weeks 0.01% -1.08% 44.76% 66.27% -43.53%
1 Month -0.32% -0.22% 47.12% 64.43% -52.85%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.4%50.0%26
Feb2.3%50.0%26
Mar-1.1%50.0%26
Apr5.3%57.7%26
May0.8%48.1%27
Jun2.8%59.3%27
Jul4.0%51.9%27
Aug-1.0%46.2%26
Sep-3.7%46.2%26
Oct-0.6%53.8%26
Nov6.3%61.5%26
Dec5.2%61.5%26

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.15% 48.2% 1244
Tuesday 0.04% 48.8% 1360
Wednesday 0.19% 50.8% 1360
Thursday -0.08% 47.8% 1334
Friday 0.22% 52.0% 1328

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 107.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings24
Net Value-$26.6M
Net Shares Change-869,624
% of Float-0.4%
C-Suite Filings11
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Haley Patrick J. EVP, Commercial -$9.0M 3 4 sell
Senner Christopher J. EVP and CFO -$8.2M 2 2 sell
Aftab Dana EVP, Research and Development -$4.3M 2 2 sell
POSTE GEORGE -$2.7M 1 1 sell
JOHNSON DAVID EDWARD +$1.2M 1 1 buy
Beckerle Mary C -$284,032.96 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-13 – 2025-11-26 5 5 -$9.2M 2 C-suite
2026-02-18 – 2026-02-26 9 8 -$21.2M 5 C-suite
2026-05-08 – 2026-05-22 6 6 -$9.7M 3 C-suite
2026-05-28 – 2026-06-03 3 3 -$2.9M 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-24 Haley Patrick J. EVP, Commercial -$3.0M Transaction at $42.17, now +33.0%
2026-05-28 Aftab Dana EVP, Research and Development -$2.2M Transaction at $50.35, now +11.4%
2026-05-22 Haley Patrick J. EVP, Commercial -$1.6M Transaction at $49.81, now +12.6%
2026-05-19 Senner Christopher J. EVP and CFO -$3.8M Transaction at $50.55, now +11.0%
2026-05-08 POSTE GEORGE -$2.7M Transaction at $45.71, now +22.7%
2026-05-08 Beckerle Mary C -$284,032.96 Transaction at $35.84, now +56.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Exelixis Inc (EXEL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for EXEL on Trend Edge →