ELF — ELF Beauty Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ELF Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 25, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction25
Actionability0 (no mans land)

Key signals behind this score

About ELF Beauty Inc

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., a beauty company, provides cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company offers eye, lip, face, and skin care products. It offers products under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, Naturium, and Rhode brand names. The company sells its products through national and international retailers and direct-to-consumer through its e-commerce channel. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$105.77
Market Cap$5.81B
Float21.9M
Shares Outstanding59.0M
P/E (Forward)34.84
P/E (TTM)100.47
Price/Sales (TTM)21.65
vs. Analyst Target-7.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-0.23%
Operating Margin (TTM)14.32%
Revenue (TTM)$268M
Earnings Growth (YoY)93.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$97.75 (17 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $318M $6.2M $206M $32.1M
2022 $392M $21.8M $252M $54.6M
2023 $579M $61.5M $390M $85.3M
2024 $1.02B $128M $724M $183M
2025 $1.31B $112M $936M $206M
2026 $1.64B $26.3M $1.16B $161M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $344M $3.0M
Dec 2025 $490M $39.4M
Mar 2026 $449M -$49.4M
Jun 2026 $479M $66.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.9%
Institutional Ownership99.2%
Short Float36.5%
% of All Funds Holding4.84%
Number of Funds Holding426

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$85.22Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$76.02Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$87.93Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$108.66Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$77.25Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$90.25Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$116.49Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$57.00 support 1.61x 1 months ago
$122.00 resistance 1.31x 8 months ago
$147.00 resistance 1.55x 22 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (40 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.25% 4.37% 57.50% 22.65% -25.08%
1 Day 0.64% 2.23% 52.50% 23.58% -35.04%
1 Week 2.48% 2.73% 55.00% 27.96% -36.87%
2 Weeks 4.69% 5.29% 60.00% 42.03% -41.93%
1 Month 5.41% 7.51% 56.41% 39.97% -39.30%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-4.6%30.0%10
Feb4.4%60.0%10
Mar-3.4%50.0%10
Apr4.8%50.0%10
May10.3%60.0%10
Jun11.9%80.0%10
Jul0.4%50.0%10
Aug2.2%55.6%9
Sep-5.3%33.3%9
Oct-2.5%30.0%10
Nov8.6%70.0%10
Dec0.4%50.0%10

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.16% 52.2% 467
Tuesday 0.19% 51.7% 513
Wednesday 0.09% 50.4% 510
Thursday 0.09% 51.7% 501
Friday 0.07% 47.5% 501

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 99.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings41
Net Value-$46.6M
Net Shares Change191,684
% of Float0.9%
C-Suite Filings29
Clusters Detected5

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
AMIN TARANG Chief Executive Officer -$822,158.26 1 1 sell
Hartnett Jennifer Catherine Chief Commercial Officer -$760,175.48 2 2 sell
MARCHISOTTO KORY Senior Vice President, Chief Marketing Officer -$666,371.84 2 2 sell
FIELDS MANDY J Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer -$662,590.47 2 2 sell
Franks Joshua Allen SVP, Operations -$536,609.41 2 2 sell
Levitan Lauren Cooks -$96,321.029 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-29 – 2025-09-12 6 6 -$17.8M 3 C-suite
2025-09-18 – 2025-09-19 4 4 -$5.8M 3 C-suite
2025-11-26 – 2025-12-08 3 3 -$441,960.704 1 C-suite
2026-04-28 – 2026-04-28 6 6 -$10.0M 5 C-suite
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-11 13 7 -$4.8M 10 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-05 MARCHISOTTO KORY Senior Vice President, Chief Marketing Officer -$442,113.28 Transaction at $51.94, now +103.6%
2026-06-05 Hartnett Jennifer Catherine Chief Commercial Officer -$535,916.92 Transaction at $51.94, now +103.6%
2026-06-05 Franks Joshua Allen SVP, Operations -$355,996.76 Transaction at $51.94, now +103.6%
2026-06-05 FIELDS MANDY J Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer -$439,620.16 Transaction at $51.94, now +103.6%
2026-06-11 Hartnett Jennifer Catherine Chief Commercial Officer -$224,258.56 Transaction at $51.53, now +105.3%
2026-06-05 AMIN TARANG Chief Executive Officer -$822,158.26 Transaction at $51.94, now +103.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for ELF Beauty Inc (ELF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ELF on Trend Edge →