COGT — Cogent Biosciences Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates COGT Bullish with a Setup Score of 32, net conviction 48, actionability 22. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score32
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction48
Actionability22 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Cogent Biosciences Inc

Cogent Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on developing precision therapies for genetically defined diseases. Its lead product candidate includes bezuclastinib (CGT9486), a selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor in Phase 3 trial designed to target mutations within the KIT receptor tyrosine kinase, including KIT D816V mutation that drives systemic mastocytosis, as well as other mutations in KIT exon 17, which are found… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$38.87
Market Cap$6.92B
Float160.9M
Shares Outstanding170.9M
Price/Sales (TTM)861.15
vs. Analyst Target+39.6% to analyst PT
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$54.25 (12 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $7.9M -$74.8M -$17.9M -$34.6M
2021 N/A -$72.3M -$147,000 -$70.3M
2022 N/A -$133M -$5.9M -$142M
2023 N/A -$192M -$3.6M -$189M
2024 N/A -$256M -$4.4M -$252M
2025 N/A -$329M -$4.6M -$321M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 N/A -$73.5M
Sep 2025 N/A -$80.9M
Dec 2025 N/A -$102M
Mar 2026 N/A -$97.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.4%
Institutional Ownership112.9%
Short Float8.4%
% of All Funds Holding3.37%
Number of Funds Holding277

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$34.94Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$33.81Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$21.19Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$14.52Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$35.36Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$22.00Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$15.60Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$16.30 support 2.02x 7 months ago
$12.00 support 1.07x 9 months ago
$7.20 support 2.66x 11 months ago
$5.80 support 1.64x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (34 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.82% -0.04% 41.18% 10.43% -3.74%
1 Day -1.00% -0.52% 41.18% 10.68% -17.09%
1 Week 2.68% -1.13% 44.12% 115.61% -39.36%
2 Weeks 2.87% 0.87% 52.94% 115.48% -33.64%
1 Month 6.13% 1.53% 57.58% 150.13% -49.09%

Next earnings: August 4, 2026 (23 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.0%50.0%8
Feb-0.9%25.0%8
Mar-5.1%37.5%8
Apr-6.4%22.2%9
May4.4%55.6%9
Jun13.4%66.7%9
Jul69.3%75.0%8
Aug12.6%62.5%8
Sep-11.1%37.5%8
Oct-1.1%50.0%8
Nov4.6%12.5%8
Dec-9.6%25.0%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 1.28% 49.9% 391
Tuesday 0.13% 48.4% 428
Wednesday -0.29% 46.0% 424
Thursday 0.01% 45.1% 417
Friday 0.25% 49.5% 416

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 112.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value-$12.2M
Net Shares Change-1,036,865
% of Float-0.6%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Fairmount Funds Management LLC -$345M 3 1 buy, 2 sell
Robinson John Edward Chief Scientific Officer -$3.5M 1 1 sell
Sachs Jessica Chief Medical Officer -$3.2M 1 1 sell
Green John L. Chief Financial Officer -$3.0M 1 1 sell
Kearns Evan Chief Legal Officer -$2.5M 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-30 – 2025-12-30 4 4 -$12.2M 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-07-14 Fairmount Funds Management LLC +$25.0M Transaction at $9.00, now +331.9%
2026-01-22 Fairmount Funds Management LLC -$127M Transaction at $36.40, now +6.8%
2025-12-30 Sachs Jessica Chief Medical Officer -$3.2M Transaction at $38.70, now +0.4%
2025-12-30 Robinson John Edward Chief Scientific Officer -$3.5M Transaction at $38.74, now +0.3%
2025-12-30 Kearns Evan Chief Legal Officer -$2.5M Transaction at $38.70, now +0.4%
2025-12-30 Green John L. Chief Financial Officer -$3.0M Transaction at $38.68, now +0.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Cogent Biosciences Inc (COGT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for COGT on Trend Edge →