COF — Capital One Financial Corporation

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates COF Bullish with a Setup Score of 34, net conviction 39, actionability 30. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score34
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction39
Actionability30 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Capital One Financial Corporation

Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$201.52
Market Cap$123.27B
Float609.4M
Shares Outstanding616.0M
P/E (Forward)9.72
P/E (TTM)61.76
Price/Sales (TTM)3.39
vs. Analyst Target+27.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin8.88%
Operating Margin (TTM)28.59%
Revenue (TTM)$36.31B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-3.20%
Dividend Rate3.2%
Analyst Target Price$256.09 (23 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $31.64B $2.71B $18.26B $6.70B
2021 $32.03B $12.39B $32.38B $19.29B
2022 $38.37B $7.36B $28.40B $12.45B
2023 $49.48B $4.89B $26.36B $9.27B
2024 $53.94B $4.75B $27.40B $9.15B
2025 $69.25B $2.45B $32.78B $7.54B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $16.41B -$4.28B
Sep 2025 $19.82B $3.19B
Dec 2025 $19.61B $2.13B
Mar 2026 $19.32B $2.17B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.9%
Institutional Ownership88.0%
Short Float1.8%
% of All Funds Holding23.51%
Number of Funds Holding1,932

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$192.99Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$207.57Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$202.80Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$154.94Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$205.98Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$202.93Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$166.86Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$186.00 support 1.14x 0 months ago
$218.00 resistance 1.17x 4 months ago
$244.00 resistance 1.41x 5 months ago
$163.00 support 1.32x 19 months ago
$150.00 support 1.14x 20 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.53% 0.12% 53.72% 13.61% -33.79%
1 Day 0.05% 1.38% 57.85% 13.03% -39.76%
1 Week 0.26% 0.17% 51.24% 28.60% -34.17%
2 Weeks 1.31% 0.51% 52.89% 48.77% -37.35%
1 Month 1.09% 0.69% 52.50% 45.65% -44.07%

Next earnings: July 21, 2026 (9 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.6%59.4%32
Feb-1.3%43.8%32
Mar1.7%59.4%32
Apr5.6%62.5%32
May2.8%65.6%32
Jun0.1%50.0%32
Jul2.0%67.7%31
Aug-0.9%48.4%31
Sep1.9%58.1%31
Oct1.0%54.8%31
Nov2.4%51.6%31
Dec2.2%59.4%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.00% 51.9% 1496
Tuesday 0.10% 49.7% 1634
Wednesday 0.08% 50.5% 1633
Thursday 0.10% 49.8% 1601
Friday 0.16% 51.4% 1594

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 88.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.9%

Founder-led management: Richard Fairbank (Founder, Chairman, CEO & President)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings34
Net Value-$89.2M
Net Shares Change-280,272
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings34
Clusters Detected6

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Blinde Neal President, Commercial Banking -$16.8M 2 N/A
FAIRBANK RICHARD D Chairman and CEO -$9.8M 1 1 sell
LaPrade,III Frank G. Chief Enterprise Srvcs Officer -$4.0M 1 N/A
Raghu Ravi Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus -$3.4M 1 N/A
Alexander Robert M. Chief Information Officer -$2.3M 1 N/A
Cooper Matthew W General Counsel & Corp Secy -$1.4M 2 N/A
Zamsky Michael Chief Credit & Fin'l Risk Off. -$1.2M 1 1 buy, 1 sell
Golden Timothy P SVP, Chief Accounting Officer -$727,989.36 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-10-29 – 2025-11-07 4 3 -$49.4M 4 C-suite
2025-12-03 – 2025-12-03 3 3 -$1.8M 3 C-suite
2026-01-05 – 2026-01-08 4 4 -$5.1M 4 C-suite
2026-02-04 – 2026-02-18 3 3 -$11.0M 3 C-suite
2026-02-26 – 2026-03-03 6 5 -$9.6M 6 C-suite
2026-05-04 – 2026-05-14 3 3 -$1.2M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-08-06 Zamsky Michael Chief Credit & Fin'l Risk Off. -$1.2M Transaction at $209.59, now -3.9%
2026-02-18 FAIRBANK RICHARD D Chairman and CEO -$9.8M Transaction at $218.50, now -7.8%
2026-02-26 Blinde Neal President, Commercial Banking -$7.3M Transaction at $190.51, now +5.8%
2025-11-07 Blinde Neal President, Commercial Banking -$9.6M Transaction at $221.83, now -9.2%
2026-01-06 Raghu Ravi Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus -$3.4M Transaction at $250.00, now -19.4%
2025-11-17 LaPrade,III Frank G. Chief Enterprise Srvcs Officer -$4.0M Transaction at $222.03, now -9.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for COF on Trend Edge →