Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge Setup Score
Trend Edge rates COF Bullish with a Setup Score of 27, net conviction 29, actionability 26. How the Setup Score works →
Total Setup Score
27
Directional Bias
Bullish
Net Conviction
29
Actionability
26 (in range)
Key signals behind this score
80wk Uptrend — trend only (sma 206 vs px 196)
200wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 162 vs px 196)
Funds Accumulating — momZ +0.44 · 23.15→23.75
Seasonal Tailwind — december med 3.2% (mag 1/3) · posClose 59.38% (rel 1/3) · n32 ×0.5 = 2.5
Founder-Led — founder/CEO led
About Capital One Financial Corporation
Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings … Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Credit Services
Exchange: NYSE
IPO Date: November 15, 1994
Headquarters: 1680 Capital One Drive, McLean, VA, United States, 22102
Founder-Led: Yes — Richard Fairbank (Founder, Chairman, CEO & President)
Key Metrics
Current Price
$199.26
Market Cap
$122.33B
Float
604.9M
Shares Outstanding
613.5M
P/E (Forward)
8.49
P/E (TTM)
12.81
Price/Sales (TTM)
2.54
vs. Analyst Target
+29.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
21.87%
Operating Margin (TTM)
33.63%
Revenue (TTM)
$48.11B
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.20%
Dividend Rate
3.2%
Analyst Target Price
$257.19 (23 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2020
$31.64B
$2.71B
$18.26B
$6.70B
2021
$32.03B
$12.39B
$32.38B
$19.29B
2022
$38.37B
$7.36B
$28.40B
$12.45B
2023
$49.48B
$4.89B
$26.36B
$9.27B
2024
$53.94B
$4.75B
$27.40B
$9.15B
2025
$69.25B
$2.45B
$32.78B
$7.54B
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Sep 2025
$19.82B
$3.19B
Dec 2025
$19.61B
$2.13B
Mar 2026
$19.32B
$2.17B
Jun 2026
$19.86B
$3.02B
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
1.2%
Institutional Ownership
89.3%
Short Float
1.8%
% of All Funds Holding
23.75%
Number of Funds Holding
2,089
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$210.32
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$202.54
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$206.17
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$162.09
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$199.27
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$204.52
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$174.44
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$184.00
support
1.10x
3 months ago
$218.00
resistance
1.17x
7 months ago
$244.00
resistance
1.41x
8 months ago
$163.00
support
1.32x
22 months ago
$150.00
support
1.14x
23 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
-0.52%
0.12%
54.10%
13.61%
-33.79%
1 Day
0.03%
1.37%
57.38%
13.03%
-39.76%
1 Week
0.27%
0.28%
51.64%
28.60%
-34.17%
2 Weeks
1.36%
0.70%
53.28%
48.77%
-37.35%
1 Month
1.02%
0.69%
52.07%
45.65%
-44.07%
Next earnings: October 20, 2026 (10 days away)
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
1.6%
59.4%
32
Feb
-1.3%
43.8%
32
Mar
1.7%
59.4%
32
Apr
5.6%
62.5%
32
May
2.8%
65.6%
32
Jun
0.1%
50.0%
32
Jul
2.1%
68.8%
32
Aug
-0.8%
50.0%
32
Sep
1.6%
56.3%
32
Oct
1.0%
54.8%
31
Nov
2.4%
51.6%
31
Dec
2.2%
59.4%
32
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
-0.00%
51.9%
1508
Tuesday
0.10%
49.7%
1647
Wednesday
0.07%
50.3%
1646
Thursday
0.10%
49.9%
1614
Friday
0.16%
51.5%
1607
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 89.3%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 1.2%
Founder-led management: Richard Fairbank (Founder, Chairman, CEO & President)
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Capital One Financial Corporation
(COF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model.
The analysis covers five layers:
technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum,
volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals),
qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions),
share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and
fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit,
stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward.
Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup,
AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.