Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $28.96 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.78B |
| Float | 78.4M |
| Shares Outstanding | 95.7M |
| P/E (Forward) | 33.44 |
| P/E (TTM) | 70.73 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 2.36 |
| vs. Analyst Target | +40.2% to analyst PT |
| Profit Margin | 4.21% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 0.90% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.17B |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | 209.10% |
| Dividend Rate | None |
| Analyst Target Price | $40.60 (15 analysts) |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $233M | $5.6M | $196M | $14.0M |
| 2021 | $849M | $135M | $731M | $148M |
| 2022 | $842M | -$109M | $654M | -$100M |
| 2023 | $548M | -$240M | $508M | -$215M |
| 2024 | $677M | -$129M | $629M | -$108M |
| 2025 | $1.08B | $53.6M | $1.02B | $79.2M |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | $265M | $5.6M |
| Sep 2025 | $286M | $31.8M |
| Dec 2025 | $304M | $18.6M |
| Mar 2026 | $308M | -$6.6M |
| Insider Ownership | 12.9% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 69.0% |
| Short Float | 35.5% |
| % of All Funds Holding | 4.48% |
| Number of Funds Holding | 346 |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $28.75 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $44.21 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $53.06 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $37.77 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $41.30 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $51.04 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $40.46 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $69.00 | resistance | 1.23x | 7 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | 1.01% | -2.75% | 40.91% | 39.39% | -55.94% |
| 1 Day | 5.94% | -1.62% | 50.00% | 89.32% | -56.42% |
| 1 Week | 13.06% | 11.17% | 63.64% | 103.54% | -39.50% |
| 2 Weeks | 13.33% | -1.29% | 40.91% | 137.34% | -51.83% |
| 1 Month | 15.09% | 4.52% | 50.00% | 139.32% | -51.85% |
Next earnings: May 12, 2026 (1 days away)
Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).
| Day | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 0.57% | 51.4% | 251 |
| Tuesday | 0.12% | 46.6% | 279 |
| Wednesday | 0.35% | 50.5% | 277 |
| Thursday | 0.11% | 46.1% | 271 |
| Friday | 0.17% | 45.4% | 271 |
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 69.0%
Total insider ownership: 12.9%
Founder-led management: Dave Girouard (Co-Founder, CEO & Chairperson of the Board), Paul Gu (Co-Founder & Director)
| Total Filings | 44 |
|---|---|
| Net Value | -$16.6M |
| Net Shares Change | 1,015,028 |
| % of Float | 1.3% |
| C-Suite Filings | 37 |
| Clusters Detected | 6 |
| Name | Title | Net Value | Filings | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girouard Dave | +$5.7M | 1 | 1 buy | |
| Gu Paul | Chief Technology Offier | +$3.9M | 1 | 1 buy |
| Datta Sanjay | Chief Financial Officer | -$2.2M | 4 | 4 sell |
| Darling Scott | Chief Legal Officer | -$598,726.781 | 2 | 2 sell |
| Mirgorodskaya Natalia | Chief Accounting Officer and Controller | -$29,072.664 | 2 | 1 sell |
| Period | Filings | Insiders | Net Value | Seniority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-22 – 2025-06-05 | 6 | 4 | -$1.4M | 4 C-suite |
| 2025-07-03 – 2025-07-17 | 5 | 3 | -$4.3M | 5 C-suite |
| 2025-08-05 – 2025-08-19 | 3 | 3 | -$2.9M | 3 C-suite |
| 2025-08-22 – 2025-09-05 | 9 | 5 | -$2.5M | 7 C-suite |
| 2025-11-24 – 2025-11-25 | 4 | 3 | -$595,014.711 | 3 C-suite |
| 2026-02-24 – 2026-03-03 | 5 | 3 | -$497,571.763 | 5 C-suite |
| Date | Insider | Title | Net Value | Price After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Girouard Dave | +$5.7M | Transaction at $15.10, now +91.8% | |
| 2026-02-24 | Datta Sanjay | Chief Financial Officer | -$238,375.246 | Transaction at $29.86, now -3.0% |
| 2026-02-24 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | Chief Accounting Officer and Controller | -$18,924.864 | Transaction at $29.90, now -3.1% |
| 2025-11-11 | Gu Paul | Chief Technology Offier | +$3.9M | Transaction at $39.23, now -26.2% |
| 2025-11-24 | Datta Sanjay | Chief Financial Officer | -$498,323.686 | Transaction at $36.58, now -20.8% |
| 2025-11-24 | Darling Scott | Chief Legal Officer | -$282,480.31 | Transaction at $36.58, now -20.8% |
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.
Get the full AI Consult analysis for UPST on Trend Edge →