CAKE — The Cheesecake Factory

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About The Cheesecake Factory

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada. It operates bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company operates restaurants under the brands comprising The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and Fox Restaurant Concept… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$64.95
Market Cap$3.01B
Float45.7M
Shares Outstanding49.7M
P/E (Forward)14.97
P/E (TTM)17.76
Price/Sales (TTM)0.79
vs. Analyst Target+2.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin4.34%
Operating Margin (TTM)5.83%
Revenue (TTM)$3.80B
Earnings Growth (YoY)52.20%
Dividend Rate1.2%
Analyst Target Price$66.76 (19 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.98B -$253M $746M -$256M
2021 $2.93B $72.4M $1.20B $172M
2022 $3.30B $43.1M $1.28B $133M
2023 $3.44B $101M $1.41B $202M
2024 $3.58B $157M $2.78B $283M
2025 $3.75B $148M $2.94B $282M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $956M $54.8M
Sep 2025 $907M $31.9M
Dec 2025 $962M $28.8M
Mar 2026 $979M $49.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership7.5%
Institutional Ownership104.2%
Short Float17.9%
% of All Funds Holding3.75%
Number of Funds Holding308

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$60.03Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$56.40Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$55.16Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$43.15Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$56.94Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$55.23Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$45.25Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$47.00 support 1.06x 17 months ago
$41.00 support 1.33x 18 months ago
$34.40 support 1.53x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (99 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.06% -0.03% 47.47% 9.93% -11.12%
1 Day -0.15% 0.32% 52.53% 8.89% -13.20%
1 Week 0.10% 0.22% 51.52% 22.37% -21.80%
2 Weeks -0.52% -0.69% 46.46% 21.21% -22.90%
1 Month 0.17% -0.18% 50.00% 32.82% -61.57%

Next earnings: July 18, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.2%50.0%34
Feb1.5%50.0%34
Mar3.1%67.6%34
Apr2.9%55.9%34
May-0.3%42.4%33
Jun-0.1%57.6%33
Jul-0.0%57.6%33
Aug0.4%48.5%33
Sep-0.6%42.4%33
Oct2.1%67.6%34
Nov4.8%70.6%34
Dec0.7%47.1%34

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.06% 48.1% 1595
Tuesday 0.09% 49.0% 1742
Wednesday 0.17% 50.4% 1739
Thursday 0.03% 49.3% 1705
Friday -0.00% 45.8% 1697

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 104.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 7.5%

Founder-led management: David Overton (Founder, Chairman & CEO)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings12
Net Value-$5.8M
Net Shares Change-42,092
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings10
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
OVERTON DAVID CHAIRMAN AND C.E.O. -$1.6M 1 1 sell
Gordon David M PRESIDENT -$1.3M 1 1 sell
CAPPELLO ALEXANDER L -$856,596.34 2 2 sell
May Scarlett EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL -$830,030.729 3 3 sell
Clark Matthew Eliot EXEC VP, CFO -$459,900 1 1 sell
Alex Spero G EVP Operations - CFRI -$420,965.567 1 1 sell
Hanscom Ashley W PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER -$193,688.885 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-05-29 – 2025-06-10 4 3 -$1.5M 4 C-suite
2026-02-25 – 2026-03-11 5 5 -$1.4M 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-11 May Scarlett EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL -$327,708.329 Transaction at $62.95, now +3.2%
2026-05-04 OVERTON DAVID CHAIRMAN AND C.E.O. -$1.6M Transaction at $53.53, now +21.3%
2026-02-26 Hanscom Ashley W PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER -$193,688.885 Transaction at $65.64, now -1.0%
2026-02-26 Clark Matthew Eliot EXEC VP, CFO -$459,900 Transaction at $65.70, now -1.1%
2026-02-26 Alex Spero G EVP Operations - CFRI -$420,965.567 Transaction at $62.33, now +4.2%
2025-08-15 Gordon David M PRESIDENT -$1.3M Transaction at $52.79, now +23.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for CAKE on Trend Edge →