AVTX — Avalo Therapeutics Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AVTX Bullish with a Setup Score of 42, net conviction 29, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score42
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction29
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Avalo Therapeutics Inc

Avalo Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops IL-1ß-based treatments for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases in the Unites States. Its lead product includes AVTX-009, a humanized monoclonal antibody that binds to interleukin-1ß, which is in phase 2 clinical trial to treat inflammatory diseases. The company was formerly known as Cerecor Inc. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$20.55
Market Cap$1.06B
Float40.1M
Shares Outstanding53.6M
Price/Sales (TTM)18,016.04
vs. Analyst Target+114.9% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)-154847.45%
Revenue (TTM)$59,000
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$44.15 (8 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $6.7M -$63.5M $6.4M -$45.5M
2021 $5.4M -$84.4M $3.9M -$80.5M
2022 $18.1M -$41.7M $14.6M -$37.3M
2023 $1.9M -$31.5M $640,000 -$23.3M
2024 $441,000 -$35.1M $807,000 -$34.8M
2025 $59,000 -$78.3M $59,000 -$77.8M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 N/A -$30.6M
Dec 2025 $59,000 -$13.7M
Mar 2026 N/A -$19.6M
Jun 2026 N/A -$36.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.7%
Institutional Ownership133.3%
Short Float32.3%
% of All Funds Holding1.44%
Number of Funds Holding127

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$19.06Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$16.77Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$12.70Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$168.03Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$17.13Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$12.85Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$32.86Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$12.80 support 2.35x 9 months ago
$9.30 support 2.90x 10 months ago
$5.00 support 1.91x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (43 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.73% -0.58% 25.58% 5.76% -26.14%
1 Day -2.16% -0.99% 30.23% 12.50% -17.70%
1 Week -2.70% -3.16% 41.86% 42.72% -35.35%
2 Weeks -0.20% 2.00% 53.49% 61.49% -39.39%
1 Month 2.16% 2.36% 54.76% 92.55% -69.92%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-6.3%36.4%11
Feb-1.1%45.5%11
Mar28.0%27.3%11
Apr-8.9%27.3%11
May-4.6%36.4%11
Jun2.5%72.7%11
Jul2.2%45.5%11
Aug-3.5%60.0%10
Sep4.6%60.0%10
Oct16.2%60.0%10
Nov-7.1%36.4%11
Dec-4.8%27.3%11

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.06% 43.1% 511
Tuesday 0.09% 45.4% 562
Wednesday 0.15% 48.5% 559
Thursday 0.79% 42.4% 550
Friday -0.40% 40.6% 547

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 133.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings20
Net Value-$3.9M
Net Shares Change-42,736
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings18
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Sullivan Christopher Ryan Chief Financial Officer -$1.0M 2 N/A
Goldman Jonathan -$81,920.851 1 1 sell
Doyle Mittie Chief Medical Officer -$79,671.019 5 N/A
Chan Mitchell -$72,460.96 1 N/A
Riley Jennifer Chief Strategy Officer -$52,012.247 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-01 – 2026-05-11 6 4 -$2.7M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-12 Riley Jennifer Chief Strategy Officer -$52,012.247 Transaction at $19.59, now +4.9%
2025-11-17 Goldman Jonathan -$81,920.851 Transaction at $12.11, now +69.7%
2026-04-03 Sullivan Christopher Ryan Chief Financial Officer -$270,592.825 Transaction at $16.96, now +21.2%
2026-05-07 Chan Mitchell -$72,460.96 Transaction at $22.88, now -10.2%
2026-08-19 Sullivan Christopher Ryan Chief Financial Officer -$740,522.367 Transaction at $14.91, now +37.8%
2026-08-19 Doyle Mittie Chief Medical Officer -$7,350 Transaction at $16.32, now +25.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AVTX on Trend Edge →