Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge rates AURA Bearish with a Setup Score of 41, net conviction 25, actionability 67. How the Setup Score works →
| Total Setup Score | 41 |
|---|---|
| Directional Bias | Bearish |
| Net Conviction | 25 |
| Actionability | 67 (in range) |
Aura Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops precision therapies to treat solid tumors. The company's proprietary platform enables the targeting of a range of solid tumors using virus-like particles conjugated with drugs or loaded with nucleic acids to create virus-like drug conjugates. Its lead candidate is bel-sar, which is in late-stage clinical development for the treatment of patients with primary choroidal melano… Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $6.54 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $675M |
| Float | 74.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 103.7M |
| vs. Analyst Target | +153.8% to analyst PT |
| Dividend Rate | None |
| Analyst Target Price | $16.60 (6 analysts) |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | N/A | -$22.2M | -$831,000 | -$21.4M |
| 2021 | N/A | -$35.3M | -$835,000 | -$34.4M |
| 2022 | N/A | -$58.8M | -$1.2M | -$57.6M |
| 2023 | N/A | -$76.4M | -$1.3M | -$75.0M |
| 2024 | N/A | -$86.9M | -$1.2M | -$85.6M |
| 2025 | N/A | -$106M | N/A | -$105M |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | N/A | -$26.1M |
| Dec 2025 | N/A | -$25.6M |
| Mar 2026 | N/A | -$33.7M |
| Jun 2026 | N/A | -$45.6M |
| Insider Ownership | 2.4% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 95.5% |
| Short Float | 8.3% |
| % of All Funds Holding | 1.66% |
| Number of Funds Holding | 146 |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $7.05 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $6.67 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $6.38 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $8.03 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $6.68 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $6.41 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $7.54 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $7.10 | resistance | 1.85x | 0 months ago |
| $5.80 | support | 1.39x | 6 months ago |
| $7.50 | resistance | 1.95x | 18 months ago |
| $10.50 | resistance | 1.14x | 22 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | 0.98% | -0.12% | 45.00% | 8.69% | -3.75% |
| 1 Day | 3.22% | 1.55% | 65.00% | 14.86% | -3.61% |
| 1 Week | -0.05% | -3.35% | 40.00% | 20.67% | -19.00% |
| 2 Weeks | -2.95% | -5.31% | 35.00% | 18.92% | -25.29% |
| 1 Month | -3.77% | -7.27% | 36.84% | 23.50% | -23.14% |
Next earnings: November 12, 2026 (32 days away)
Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).
| Day | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | -0.33% | 46.3% | 231 |
| Tuesday | 0.31% | 50.8% | 256 |
| Wednesday | -0.12% | 46.9% | 254 |
| Thursday | -0.07% | 43.3% | 247 |
| Friday | 0.30% | 51.6% | 248 |
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 95.5%
Total insider ownership: 2.4%
Founder-led management: Elisabet de los Pinos (Founder, CEO, President & Director)
| Total Filings | 14 |
|---|---|
| Net Value | -$1.0M |
| Net Shares Change | -7,109,731 |
| % of Float | -9.5% |
| C-Suite Filings | 13 |
| Clusters Detected | 2 |
| Name | Title | Net Value | Filings | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matrix Capital Management Company, LP | -$39.0M | 1 | 1 sell | |
| de los Pinos Elisabet | President and Chief Executive Officer | -$241,098.88 | 1 | 1 sell |
| Hopkins Janet Jill | Chief Medical Officer | -$195,959.84 | 2 | 2 sell |
| Plavsic Mark | Chief Technology Officer | -$157,517.65 | 2 | 2 sell |
| Kilroy Conor | Chief Legal Officer and Secretary. | -$143,399.71 | 2 | 2 sell |
| Gibney Anthony S | Chief Financial and Business Officer. | -$82,330.08 | 1 | 1 sell |
| Elazzouzi Amy | Senior Vice President, Finance | -$43,257.94 | 1 | 1 sell |
| Period | Filings | Insiders | Net Value | Seniority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-16 – 2025-10-29 | 3 | 3 | -$140,423.9 | 3 C-suite |
| 2026-02-17 – 2026-02-17 | 5 | 5 | -$528,829.33 | 5 C-suite |
| Date | Insider | Title | Net Value | Price After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Kilroy Conor | Chief Legal Officer and Secretary. | -$82,400.76 | Transaction at $7.02, now -6.8% |
| 2026-06-16 | Gibney Anthony S | Chief Financial and Business Officer. | -$82,330.08 | Transaction at $6.42, now +1.9% |
| 2026-02-17 | Elazzouzi Amy | Senior Vice President, Finance | -$43,257.94 | Transaction at $5.06, now +29.2% |
| 2026-02-17 | de los Pinos Elisabet | President and Chief Executive Officer | -$241,098.88 | Transaction at $5.06, now +29.2% |
| 2026-02-17 | Plavsic Mark | Chief Technology Officer | -$80,244.5 | Transaction at $5.05, now +29.5% |
| 2026-02-17 | Kilroy Conor | Chief Legal Officer and Secretary. | -$60,998.95 | Transaction at $5.05, now +29.5% |
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Aura Biosciences Inc (AURA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.
Get the full AI Consult analysis for AURA on Trend Edge →