ARVN — Arvinas Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ARVN Bearish with a Setup Score of 27, net conviction 31, actionability 24. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score27
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction31
Actionability24 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Arvinas Inc

Arvinas, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins. The company develops proteolysis targeting chimeras (PROTAC) targeted protein degraders that are designed to harness the body's own natural protein disposal system to degrade and remove disease-causing proteins. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$8.27
Market Cap$538M
Float55.8M
Shares Outstanding64.5M
P/E (Forward)17.86
Price/Sales (TTM)6.16
vs. Analyst Target+79.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-247.54%
Operating Margin (TTM)-405.13%
Revenue (TTM)$89.4M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$14.80 (21 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $21.8M -$112M $21.8M -$121M
2021 $46.7M -$183M $46.7M -$189M
2022 $131M -$272M $131M -$255M
2023 $78.5M -$367M $78.5M -$360M
2024 $263M -$199M $263M -$192M
2025 $263M -$80.8M $257M -$75.3M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $22.4M -$61.2M
Sep 2025 $41.9M -$35.1M
Dec 2025 $9.5M -$67.4M
Mar 2026 $15.6M -$57.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership7.9%
Institutional Ownership83.3%
Short Float8.1%
% of All Funds Holding2.25%
Number of Funds Holding185

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$8.46Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$10.76Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$10.53Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$22.67Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$10.73Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$10.83Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$19.83Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$7.10 support 1.99x 14 months ago
$17.70 resistance 3.22x 15 months ago
$26.00 resistance 1.38x 18 months ago
$33.40 resistance 1.38x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (32 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.15% 0.56% 62.50% 9.27% -2.55%
1 Day 1.83% 1.48% 62.50% 18.67% -7.20%
1 Week 2.49% -0.71% 43.75% 30.07% -12.34%
2 Weeks 1.67% -2.78% 40.63% 53.54% -18.91%
1 Month 2.86% -4.15% 41.94% 89.99% -50.79%

Next earnings: August 5, 2026 (23 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.8%50.0%8
Feb0.9%50.0%8
Mar-18.9%12.5%8
Apr7.6%50.0%8
May-12.7%37.5%8
Jun0.2%75.0%8
Jul11.0%71.4%7
Aug-6.0%28.6%7
Sep-7.4%28.6%7
Oct0.8%50.0%8
Nov17.1%75.0%8
Dec34.9%50.0%8

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.01% 47.4% 367
Tuesday 0.02% 47.0% 402
Wednesday 0.31% 52.6% 399
Thursday -0.17% 44.5% 391
Friday 0.26% 50.1% 391

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 83.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 7.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings21
Net Value-$955,009.119
Net Shares Change-76,256
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings18
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Morrison Briggs +$495,080 2 2 buy
Berkowitz Noah Chief Medical Officer -$181,815.713 2 N/A
Saik Andrew Chief Financial Officer -$157,166.363 2 N/A
Cacace Angela M Chief Scientific Officer -$95,965.472 1 N/A
Teel Randy President and CEO -$95,965.472 1 N/A
Loomis David K Chief Accounting Officer -$21,344.571 2 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-18 – 2026-03-02 9 6 -$829,378.54 8 C-suite
2026-05-13 – 2026-05-22 6 5 -$452,039.781 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-09 Morrison Briggs +$268,070 Transaction at $13.40, now -38.3%
2025-09-24 Morrison Briggs +$227,010 Transaction at $7.57, now +9.3%
2025-11-07 Loomis David K Chief Accounting Officer -$2,274.7 Transaction at $9.89, now -16.4%
2026-05-13 Saik Andrew Chief Financial Officer -$110,692.699 Transaction at $9.94, now -16.8%
2026-05-13 Cacace Angela M Chief Scientific Officer -$95,965.472 Transaction at $9.94, now -16.8%
2026-05-13 Berkowitz Noah Chief Medical Officer -$110,384.639 Transaction at $9.94, now -16.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Arvinas Inc (ARVN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ARVN on Trend Edge →