ARQT — Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for dermatological diseases. The company's lead product is ZORYVE, a topical roflumilast cream for the treatment of plaque psoriasis and atopic dermatitis. It also develops ZORYVE foam seborrheic dermatitis, and scalp and body psoriasis treatment; ARQ-234, a fusion protein that is a potent and highly selective checkpoint agonist of the… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$20.86
Market Cap$2.56B
Float92.5M
Shares Outstanding125.1M
P/E (Forward)113.64
Price/Sales (TTM)6.16
vs. Analyst Target+66.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-0.57%
Operating Margin (TTM)-8.62%
Revenue (TTM)$416M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$34.63 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 N/A -$136M -$455,000 -$135M
2021 N/A -$206M -$763,000 -$206M
2022 $3.7M -$311M $2.9M -$295M
2023 $59.6M -$262M $54.6M -$227M
2024 $197M -$140M $177M -$110M
2025 $376M -$16.1M $339M $2.5M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $81.5M -$15.9M
Sep 2025 $99.2M $7.4M
Dec 2025 $130M $17.4M
Mar 2026 $105M -$11.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.8%
Institutional Ownership110.0%
Short Float18.2%
% of All Funds Holding2.94%
Number of Funds Holding242

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$22.58Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$23.66Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$18.74Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$14.12Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$23.93Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$18.69Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$13.65Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$18.90 support 1.31x 6 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (26 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.44% 0.47% 61.54% 15.87% -20.46%
1 Day 0.06% 0.22% 50.00% 36.38% -18.83%
1 Week -0.98% -2.04% 42.31% 67.57% -32.46%
2 Weeks -2.74% -0.86% 46.15% 39.68% -39.34%
1 Month -1.31% -6.09% 36.00% 53.08% -37.62%

Next earnings: May 6, 2026

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.56% 53.0% 296
Tuesday 0.05% 48.9% 327
Wednesday 0.14% 52.9% 325
Thursday -0.29% 41.0% 317
Friday 0.12% 50.0% 316

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 110.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.8%

Founder-led management: Bhaskar Chaudhuri (Co-Founder & Director Emeritus)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings59
Net Value-$11.2M
Net Shares Change-277,529
% of Float-0.3%
C-Suite Filings41
Clusters Detected8

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Edwards Larry Todd Reporting Person's title: EVP Chief Commercial Officer -$825,773.623 2 1 sell
Welgus Howard G. -$403,020.842 2 N/A
Gilbert Halley E -$363,669.521 1 1 sell
Matsuda Masaru Reporting Person's title: EVP, Chief Legal Officer -$313,876.975 1 N/A
Burnett Patrick Reporting Person's title: EVP, Chief Medical Officer -$158,319.863 1 N/A
Vairavan Latha SVP Chief Financial Officer -$71,843.961 1 N/A
Heron Patrick J +$64,857.202 2 2 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-05 – 2025-08-12 6 5 -$491,926.454 5 C-suite
2025-10-03 – 2025-10-06 3 3 -$1.1M 2 C-suite
2025-10-30 – 2025-11-10 8 6 -$3.0M 7 C-suite
2025-11-17 – 2025-11-25 5 5 -$3.1M 2 C-suite
2025-12-03 – 2025-12-17 3 3 -$643,215.51 2 C-suite
2026-02-04 – 2026-02-04 6 6 -$2.2M 5 C-suite
2026-03-03 – 2026-03-04 7 7 -$2.5M 5 C-suite
2026-05-05 – 2026-05-13 7 5 -$493,169.142 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-06-17 Heron Patrick J +$34,610.474 Transaction at $13.08, now +59.5%
2025-06-06 Heron Patrick J +$30,246.728 Transaction at $13.34, now +56.4%
2025-11-10 Edwards Larry Todd Reporting Person's title: EVP Chief Commercial Officer -$732,927.221 Transaction at $25.16, now -17.1%
2026-05-05 Welgus Howard G. -$164,219.842 Transaction at $22.99, now -9.3%
2026-03-03 Vairavan Latha SVP Chief Financial Officer -$71,843.961 Transaction at $25.18, now -17.2%
2026-03-03 Matsuda Masaru Reporting Person's title: EVP, Chief Legal Officer -$313,876.975 Transaction at $26.03, now -19.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ARQT on Trend Edge →