ARDX — Ardelyx Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Ardelyx Inc

Ardelyx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat unmet medical needs in the United States and internationally. The company offers IBSRELA, a minimally absorbed small molecule therapy for the treatment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation; and XPHOZAH, a phosphate absorption inhibitor to reduce serum phosphorus in adults with chronic kidney disease on dialysis. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$6.17
Market Cap$1.57B
Float219.7M
Shares Outstanding247.0M
P/E (Forward)40.65
Price/Sales (TTM)3.67
vs. Analyst Target+164.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-13.58%
Operating Margin (TTM)-34.71%
Revenue (TTM)$428M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$16.33 (11 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $7.6M -$94.3M $7.4M -$85.2M
2021 $10.1M -$158M $9.1M -$151M
2022 $52.2M -$67.2M $48.0M -$61.0M
2023 $124M -$66.1M $107M -$55.4M
2024 $334M -$39.1M $283M -$16.7M
2025 $407M -$61.6M $365M -$37.9M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $97.7M -$19.1M
Sep 2025 $110M -$969,000
Dec 2025 $125M -$407,000
Mar 2026 $94.5M -$37.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership3.2%
Institutional Ownership70.7%
Short Float10.7%
% of All Funds Holding2.64%
Number of Funds Holding217

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$6.22Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$6.15Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$5.48Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$4.99Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$6.23Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$5.59Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$5.56Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$5.90 support 1.41x 3 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (48 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.30% -0.06% 41.67% 28.34% -73.64%
1 Day 0.81% 0.60% 52.08% 32.18% -73.90%
1 Week -0.98% -0.27% 47.92% 30.26% -79.09%
2 Weeks 2.21% 4.93% 58.33% 60.53% -78.70%
1 Month 8.63% 5.86% 65.96% 175.44% -82.86%

Next earnings: July 19, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan5.7%66.7%12
Feb-4.3%25.0%12
Mar0.1%25.0%12
Apr0.6%58.3%12
May-13.2%36.4%11
Jun4.3%54.5%11
Jul-3.3%58.3%12
Aug10.6%66.7%12
Sep5.7%50.0%12
Oct1.4%33.3%12
Nov14.4%66.7%12
Dec1.5%41.7%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.19% 48.4% 562
Tuesday 0.09% 46.0% 619
Wednesday -0.04% 48.5% 615
Thursday 0.10% 44.5% 602
Friday 0.29% 47.7% 602

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 70.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 3.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings37
Net Value-$3.7M
Net Shares Change279,434
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings34
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
MOTT DAVID M +$1.9M 1 1 buy
RAAB MICHAEL President and CEO -$343,133.09 1 1 sell
Reilly Joseph James Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer -$52,489.712 2 2 sell
Foster Eric Duane Chief Commercial Officer -$50,127.465 1 1 sell
Kelliher Mike Chief Business Officer -$45,426.84 1 1 sell
Williams Laura A Chief Patient Officer -$43,803.558 1 1 sell
Bishop John E Chief Technical and Quality Officer -$14,452.855 1 1 sell
Brady James Parker Chief Human Resources Officer -$11,569.805 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-25 – 2025-08-28 7 6 -$947,642.867 7 C-suite
2025-11-25 – 2025-11-25 6 6 -$452,741.239 6 C-suite
2026-02-23 – 2026-02-25 10 9 +$1.2M 9 C-suite
2026-05-19 – 2026-05-22 9 8 -$781,929.468 9 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-22 Reilly Joseph James Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer -$23,308.833 Transaction at $6.27, now -1.6%
2026-05-22 RAAB MICHAEL President and CEO -$343,133.09 Transaction at $6.27, now -1.6%
2026-05-22 Williams Laura A Chief Patient Officer -$43,803.558 Transaction at $6.27, now -1.6%
2026-05-22 Kelliher Mike Chief Business Officer -$45,426.84 Transaction at $6.27, now -1.6%
2026-05-22 Hohenleitner Susan Chief Financial Officer -$9,119.213 Transaction at $6.27, now -1.6%
2026-05-22 Foster Eric Duane Chief Commercial Officer -$50,127.465 Transaction at $6.27, now -1.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Ardelyx Inc (ARDX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ARDX on Trend Edge →